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Merkel expects no breakthrough at eurozone crisis summit

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday that the eurozone summit on a second Greek rescue would not produce a "spectacular" knock-out blow to the bloc's sovereign debt crisis.

Merkel expects no breakthrough at eurozone crisis summit
Photo: DPA

“After more than a year of discussing Greece there is currently a great yearning for one finalising, single big step, something ideally that is spectacular,” Merkel said after talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

“The words being used are clear – a large debt restructuring, eurobonds, a transfer union, and lots more. This creates the impression that everything is going to be okay afterwards, that the issue of Greece and the issue of the euro can be put to one side.”

This way of thinking, she said, was “negligent” or reflected a “lack of patience, or both,” Merkel told a news conference in Hannover, northern Germany, two days ahead of a eurozone summit in Brussels.

“If you are going to be politically responsible, and this is what the (German) government wants and takes seriously, you know that such a spectacular, single step cannot responsibly be made, including on Thursday.

“Instead, we need a controlled and manageable process of successive steps and measures, a process that has one single purpose, one paramount aim, namely finally getting to the root of this problem. “This means reducing debt and improving competitiveness.”

She added: “Thursday will help in this, but further steps will be needed, not one spectacular event solving all problems.”

Greece, Ireland and Portugal have needed bailouts from the European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) and markets speculate that Spain and Italy could suffer the same fate.

Germany has ruffled feathers with demands for private bondholders to participate in the second Greek rescue, but there are concerns that any debt restructuring could lead credit ratings agencies to declare Athens in default.

Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank president, repeated a warning on Monday that any default would mean that Greek banks could no longer offer the country’s bonds as collateral for vital cash lifelines from the ECB.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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