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Export machine reawakens

Germany's export machine geared up in May, expanding by 4.3 percent to nearly offset a decline in April, data from the national statistics office showed on Friday.

Export machine reawakens
Photo: DPA

The provisional gain in May left Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and the world’s second biggest exporting nation after China, with a seasonally-adjusted trade surplus of €12.8 billion ($18.4 billion), the Destatis office said.

It revised an initial estimate for April exports to a decrease of 5.6 percent from 5.5 percent.

Imports were 3.7 percent higher in May on the month, Destatis said, following a drop of 2.5 percent in April.

“With consumption climate improving on the back of falling unemployment and rising income, domestic demand and imports should expand stronger than exports, helping other European countries to rebalance their external sectors,” Berenberg Bank senior economist Christian Schulz forecast.

On a 12-month comparison, German exports showed an increase of 19.9 percent, while imports were 15.6 percent higher.

Figures provided by the German central bank put the current account of the balance of payments, a broad measure of trade and financial transfers with other countries, at a surplus of €6.9 billion in May. That was more than double the year-earlier figure of €3.1 billion.

The numbers suggest there is still life in the German export mechanism, which has accounted for much of the country’s economic growth but which might begin to face headwinds owing to a slowdown in global activity.

On Thursday, the economy ministry reported that German industrial output rebounded in May, gaining 1.2 percent on a monthly basis after a decline of 0.8 percent in April.

Industrial orders gained 1.8 percent overall meanwhile, far exceeding analysts expectations and pointing to sustained support for manufacturers in the coming months.

Although foreign orders fell by 5.8 percent, orders from within Germany increased by 11.3 percent.

The economy is officially expected to expand by 2.6 percent this year following growth of 3.6 percent in 2010, but Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that forecast could be raised above 3.0 percent in the coming months.

Domestic consumption has begun to show signs of life, as unemployment falls further below the politically sensitive three-million mark.

A breakdown of the Destatis figures showed that Germany’s trade with partners in the 17-nation eurozone grew on a balanced basis in May. Exports increased by 16.1 percent to a total of €36.8 billion, and imports were 16.2 percent higher at €34.9 billion.

Berlin has been accused by some in the eurozone of growing at the expense of its neighbours, a charge the numbers refuted.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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