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ECONOMY

Sudden slowdown in French growth

The French economy has suddenly slowed down but is still creating jobs, official data indicates, but analysts warn that the country has a deep trade problem of weak competitiveness.

The French economy has suddenly slowed down but is still creating jobs, official data indicates, but analysts warn that the country has a deep trade problem of weak competitiveness.

The economy is expected to show growth 0.4 percent in the second quarter, the Bank of France said, after growth of 1.0 percent in the first quarter.  

This latest signal on growth comes the day after trade data showed a record deficit and prompted renewed warnings from analysts that France is building up structural competitive weaknesses.

An economics professor at Sciences-Po, Philippe Martin, said that the trade deficit arose from a “structural competitivity problem in French industry” as well as the strength of the euro.

But employers and trades unions, in a sign that ideological confrontation in the French economy is shifting, have produced a joint report on competitiveness identifying labour costs and also wider productivity issues as a drag on the economy.

France, fighting for recovery from the economic crisis and to keep up with export-driven growth in Germany, where there are also signs of faltering, is counting on growth of at least 2.0 percent this year, a target which the European Union warns is unduly optimistic.

The centre-right government under President Nicolas Sarkozy faces a presidential election a year from now and is working both for recovery and growth and to reduce high unemployment, while also cutting the public deficit to contain rising debt.

Internal consumption is particularly important to growth in France.

In the first quarter, when the economy was recovering quickly, the economy created 58,200 mostly permanent jobs in the market-driven sector, indicating that employment was “becoming more stable”, the head of the public employment agency, Christian Charpy, said in a radio interview.

This partial employment data is in line with official unemployment statistics a week ago showing that the unemployment rate in the first quarter fell slightly to 9.2 percent from 9.3 percent.

One important dividend from this emerged in figures for the main social security budget on Thursday showing that the projected deficit for the year would fall by 1.4 billion euros to 19.5 billion euros ($28.5 billion).

This reflects mainly a switch of people from benefits to employment and making welfare contributions.

In France the social welfare budgets as a whole are substantially bigger than the central government budget, and therefore a big component of the critically important public deficit.

But the structural trade deficit is a drag on growth.

Data on Wednesday showed a record trade deficit in April of €7.14 billion ($10.46 billion), caused in part by the purchase of two big aircraft and a surge in purchases of refined oil products.

But analysts say there is a deep underlying problem. France is building up deficits where it used to have surpluses, in autos and pharmaceuticals for example, and broadly lags far behind Germany in the number of medium-sized companies which in any case tend not to be sufficiently positioned on high quality niche products. 

“The important point is that exports aren’t progressing even though world growth is strong, said Nicolas Bouzou, an analyst at consultants Asteres.

Competitiveness was the theme of the report by employers and unions which, they said, went beyond “ideological approaches”.   

The report was a break with past attitudes, it said which had been characterised by a belief that “for one side, labour costs are the cause of all problems, for the other shareholder long term vision (is the problem).”

Union official Joseph Thouvenel said: “If we compare with the Germans, while our salaries are about the same, they went towards new markets, have a whole offer of services. We’ve only played with low prices leaving us little margin, no research or development,” he said.

For the employers’ organisation, Pierre Fonlupt said: “We’re anything but defeatist.”

He said: “We realise that yes, there’s a certain number of problems to solve, but that France also has a lot of attributes to hold its place competitively.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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