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EUROPE

Germany fails to find credible IMF candidate

Despite being Europe's top economy, Germany looks set to show, yet again, that it has no viable candidate for a top job at an important global institution – including the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Germany fails to find credible IMF candidate
Photo: DPA

The tongue-in-cheek front page of German business daily Handelsblatt said it all. Headline: “The German candidate.” Picture: the French finance minister.

“Nations are also judged on their ability to occupy top international jobs. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy by far, has none of them right now,” the paper moaned.

Of all the names floated in the media to succeed Frenchman Dominique Strauss-Kahn as managing director of the IMF, the global of lender of last resort, none is from Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse.

Chancellor Angela Merkel is playing her cards close to her chest, but on Friday she said she had “high regard” for French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde.

For many, this was a hint that she would end up supporting the 55-year-old.

Germany also looks set to go empty-handed when it comes to who will succeed Jean-Claude Trichet – another Frenchman, and also touted as a possible next IMF chief – as head of the European Central Bank (ECB) later this year.

The ECB president is arguably the most influential job in Europe, as the bank sets interest rates for more than 330 million people the 17-nation eurozone, the core of the the world’s largest trading bloc.

In its decade of existence, the ECB has had two heads, neither of them German. This time Berlin’s candidate Axel Weber, the chief of the Bundesbank, was initially seen as a shoo-in to succeed Trichet when he steps down.

But in February, Weber threw in the towel for “personal reasons,” leaving Germany no time to line up an alternative and forcing Merkel this month to reluctantly throw her weight behind Italian Mario Draghi for the job.

This was all the more galling as Berlin had refrained from pushing Germans for other top European jobs in order, analysts said, to keep its powder dry for the ECB top job.

The EU president is a Belgian, the president of the European Commission is Portuguese and the EU foreign policy chief is British. Germany’s highest-ranking European official is Guenther Oettinger, energy commissioner.

It is true that from 2000-2004 the head of the IMF was a German, Horst Koehler, but that is some time ago, and was before the global financial crisis, when the bank was less important than it is now.

Armed now with more cash, it has become a key player in the eurozone debt crisis, providing billions of euros towards bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

“Since World War II Germany has been very prudent when it comes to occupying top political jobs,” sociologist Michael Hartmann, who specialises in studying the political elite, told news agency AFP.

But he added that Germany is content to pull strings behind the scenes in order to make sure things go its way, particularly as Europe seeks to respond to its debt crisis.

“For Germany, prestige is of secondary importance,” he said.

AFP/The Local/adn

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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