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EUROPE

Merkel reportedly to back Draghi as ECB chief

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has thrown her crucial support behind Italy's Mario Draghi as the next head of the European Central Bank, the daily Bild reported on Friday.

Merkel reportedly to back Draghi as ECB chief
Photo: DPA

Merkel wants “the most German among the remaining candidates” to replace Jean-Claude Trichet when the Frenchman steps down in October, the paper quoted an unnamed official at the German chancellery as saying.

Bild, Germany’s top-selling newspaper, indicated Merkel had concluded Draghi had those “German” qualities of fiscal conservatism, commitment to a stable euro and willingness to push debt-laden eurozone countries towards reforms.

The newspaper even featured an irreverent photo montage of Draghi donning a

typical spiked Prussian helmet. “It suits him,” the sensationalist daily wrote.

German government spokesman Steffen Seibert had insisted on Wednesday that there could be no agreement on the future ECB chief without Berlin’s backing, after France and Italy appeared to anoint Draghi, 63, at a summit in Rome.

But he stopped short of revealing whether Merkel supported Draghi, the current head of Italy’s central bank, saying Germany’s voice would be taken into account before a final decision is taken at an EU summit in June.

Meanwhile Bild itself, which holds powerful political sway in Germany, dropped its own reservations about Draghi and offered a lengthy list of what it saw as his attributes: strict, down-to-earth, ambitious, loyal and independent.

Just one year ago, Bild wrote “An Italian of all things!” to dismiss Draghi’s bid to replace Trichet, adding as recently as February that “inflation is as much a part of Italian life as tomato sauce and pasta.”

Merkel was said to be hesitant about Draghi in part out of fear of the reaction of Germany’s mass-market media.

Analysts say there is no other realistic alternative to lead the world’s second most powerful central bank after the Federal Reserve in Washington.

Germany’s own candidate for the position, Axel Weber, who is stepping down Friday as head of the powerful Bundesbank, pulled out of the race unexpectedly, leaving Berlin without a credible second choice.

AFP/mry

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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