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POLITICS

Guttenberg and the price of decency

Decency has won the day, but the price for that victory is high. Malte Lehming from Der Tagesspiegel examines Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg’s downfall and what his resignation might mean for Angela Merkel.

Guttenberg and the price of decency
Photo: DPA

Yes, jealousy and resentment played a role in this drama. An outstanding talent, one who had long been Germany most popular politician, needed to be brought down. He was a good-looking aristocrat, articulate, likeable and charismatic. He was a hands-on kind of guy who didn’t baulk at making unpopular decisions.

And yes, it was about power. Germany’s political opposition had a tough time with Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg. The harder they attacked him, the more powerful he became. It was almost enough to drive them to despair. Even without a direct comparison to the baron, the leading lights of the centre-left Social Democrats – Sigmar Gabriel, Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Kurt Beck – look rather bland. Put next to Guttenberg and the three suddenly shrink down to grumpy garden gnome size.

And yes, it was also about a media battle: left-leaning broadsheet newspapers and magazines against right-wing tabloids (with a few exceptions).

But Guttenberg’s downfall was, in fact, completely his own doing.

He’s not the victim of insidious machinations or a smear campaign. He’s not a skittish deer, hounded and eventually slain by a bloodthirsty pack. Instead, he simply failed to stay on his feet during the first serious crisis of his political career.

It wasn’t a plagiarized doctoral dissertation that sealed his fate, rather his behaviour after the allegations first surfaced two weeks ago. Discounting the charges as “abstruse,” the coquettish manner in which he dealt with his own mistakes (claiming he was “the original, not the copy”), the defiant way in which he refused to show regret, and how he tried to spin the affair. The public can forgive mistakes, even big ones. But what people won’t pardon are instances of equivocation, semantic dodges (“no deliberate deception”) and faked humility.

The Guttenberg we saw on Tuesday during his resignation speech was the man that many of us would have liked to have seen ten days ago – honest, personal, real.

“It’s the most painful decision of my life,” he said, and many believed him. “I’ve reached the limits of my strength,” he said, and that, too, was believable. “This office became my lifeblood,” he said, and there was no doubt. But it was simply too late.

A resignation with class is made either right away or not at all. Just like the departure by Margot Käßmann, the former head of Germany’s Protestant churches who immediately stepped down after being caught driving drunk. She was quickly forgiven and rehabilitated in the public eye.

The curtain has now closed on this tragic drama. The line between saint and hypocrite, righteous and self-righteous, was often blurred. And plenty of damage was done.

But the wounds can now be healed, the malice forgiven, the taunts silenced. Justice hasn’t been subverted by this affair, but rather served. Values put under strain have been renewed.

Guttenberg is still young. And while one life may be firmly behind him, there are many possible ones still on the horizon. Germany, with its serious dearth of political talent, can ill afford to do without him in the long run.

Angela Merkel, however, is about to embark on one of the toughest periods of her chancellorship. With Guttenberg’s departure, her conservatives lose their only other high-profile politician in a year full of key state elections. Who now is going to draw crowds to election rallies?

For many conservatives, Guttenberg, rightly or wrongly, offered a kind of ideological home and that kind of yearning can’t simply be replaced. Merkel had already gutted her party of conservative ideas long before the Guttenberg affair. Now, there’s no-one to fill the void for her.

Yes, decency has won the day, but the price for that victory will be extremely high.

This commentary was published with the kind permission of Berlin newspaper Der Tagesspiegel, where it originally appeared in German. Translation by The Local.

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ECONOMY

‘Turning point’: Is Germany’s ailing economy on the road to recovery?

The German government slightly increased its 2024 growth forecast Wednesday, saying there were signs Europe's beleaguered top economy was at a "turning point" after battling through a period of weakness.

'Turning point': Is Germany's ailing economy on the road to recovery?

Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

READ ALSO: Which German companies are planning to cut jobs?

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.

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