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ECONOMY

‘Record growth’ for Sweden’s economy

Sweden's economy easily beat expectations to post record growth in the fourth quarter while 2010 as a whole turned out to be the strongest year since 1970, the national statistics agency said Tuesday.

'Record growth' for Sweden's economy

Sweden’s economy grew 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to the previous three-month period and jumped 7.3 percent year-on-year, beating analyst expectations, according to numbers from Statistics Sweden.

The 7.3-percent year-on-year quarterly jump is the highest on record since the statistics agency started recording quarterly data in 1970.

For the whole year, “GDP (gross domestic product) increased 5.5 percent compared with 2009, which is the highest increase since 1970,” the agency said in a statement.

Sweden’s GDP growth slowed compared to the third quarter, when it reached 2.1 percent, but still outstripped analyst forecasts polled by Dow Jones Newswires for a 0.9-percent quarter-on-quarter gain.

Compared to the same quarter a year earlier, growth sped up to 7.3 percent from 6.9 percent in the third quarter, easily beating analyst expectations that growth would remain a 6.9 percent in the last three months of the year.

Compared to the previous quarter, growth in the October-December period was boosted by household consumption, which was up 4.3 percent, and by investments, which were up 4.5 percent, the statistics agency said.

Sweden, which emerged from recession in the second quarter of 2009 and saw growth quickly pick up in the first quarter of 2010 — largely thanks to a rebound in exports — now has one of Europe’s strongest growth rates.

“The Swedish economy is growing across the board. The recovery is continuing with positive signals from the labour market. This means the central bank will continue to raise its (interest) rates,” Nordea Bank analyst Annika Winsth told news agency TT.

Sweden’s central bank last month hiked its key interest rate for the fifth time since July, a widely anticipated move, bringing it to 1.5 percent.

The bank explained the hike was due to continued growth in the Swedish economy and that it expected its key rate to reach 2.5 percent in 2012, up from the 2.2 percent previously expected.

The head economist of mortgage lender SBAB said Tuesday’s figures confirmed the Riksbank had taken the right monetary policy line.

“The Swedish economy is booming!” Tomas Pousette told TT.

Finance Minister Anders Borg, who has referred to the country’s economy as a “Tiger,” shared analysts’ enthusiasm but said challenges lay ahead.

“There is a substantial challenge ahead of us to manage both strong growth and low unemployment without creating imbalances,” he told TT, saying growth of 5.5 percent in 2010 had beaten the government’s expectations.

Sweden’s unemployment rate, however, rose more than expected in January to 8.2 percent from 7.4 percent in December, but is following a downward trend annually.

In a report published in January, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also said Sweden’s economy would continue to show strong growth this year and in 2012 after emerging relatively unscathed from the global slump.

The OECD put Swedish growth at 3.9 percent this year and 3.4 percent in 2012.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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