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ECONOMY

Clinton praise as Sweden woos Davos

Sweden's prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt will on Friday address the ongoing World Economic Forum in Davos to explain Sweden's relative economic prosperity as ex-US president Bill Clinton joined the chorus of admirers, reported the business daily Dagens Industri (DI).

Clinton praise as Sweden woos Davos

The Swedish model is back in fashion at this year’s meet of the global finance elite and government heads in the Swiss mountain resort of Davos.

As the economies of the EU and the USA struggle to emerge from the effects of the financial crisis, Sweden is in contrast reporting strong growth and stable state finances.

“We are at odds with the rest of Europe which the world sees as weighed down by problems,” Reinfeldt said in Davos at a press briefing on Thursday, pointing out Sweden’s sound finances and high growth in employment.

Eva Cooper at liberal think tank Timbro told The Local on Friday that the praise received by Sweden internationally is justified and much of the success depends on finance minister Anders Borg’s control of the state finances.

“Anders Borg is the answer. It has not been so clear before that the finance minister has had such an overarching control of all areas and this has functioned well during the financial crisis,” Cooper said, adding that Sweden has thus been able to avoid the instability in other EU countries such as Greece.

“It has been shown that it is not wise for states to live on borrowed money, Sweden has some lessons to teach on this issue.”

Reinfeldt will on Friday present the case for why Sweden, together with its Nordic neighbours Finland, Norway and Denmark have weathered the financial storm of recent years fairly well.

And according to Dagens Industri, ex-US president Bill Clinton is among those praising the country’s economic achievements, arguing that Sweden’s climate change policies are to thank for the country’s relative economic buoyancy.

“Sweden is basically the only country which has achieved its climate goals,” said Clinton.

Notable dignitaries who are expected to be in attendance to listen to Fredrik Reinfeldt include the OECD’s secretary-general José Angel Gurria and Harvard economist Kenneth Saul Rogoff.

Gurria last week compared the strength of the Swedish economy to that of the popular Astrid Lindgren character Pippi Longstocking during a conference in Stockholm.

Ángel Gurría went on to praise Sweden, declaring the country “an island of prosperity” in very shaky waters, while warning that as a small economy a number of elements were out of its hands.

“Sweden is a success story, even though you are vulnerable to things you have no control over because you are a small open economy,” he noted.

Eva Cooper agreed that challenges remain and warned that there is a danger that all the praise could go to Sweden’s head.

“There is a danger that we continue in old patterns – that we have a model and are sticking to it. In my view there are areas that would need to be changed more and establish that there are things other than state initiatives that can create security in society,” she told The Local.

Anders Borg has meanwhile forecast that the Swedish economy is set to grow at a rate of 6-7 percent in the first quarter 2011.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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