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ECONOMY

Inflation tipped to hit 4 percent

Consumers face a wave of rising prices with leading economists predicting on Wednesday that the inflation rate in Germany could hit 4 percent in coming years.

Inflation tipped to hit 4 percent
Photo: DPA

With Europe’s biggest economy humming along and the European Central Bank (ECB) pumping billions of euros into the market to tackle the eurozone crisis, experts are worried that inflation could soar.

Thomas Mayer, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, told daily Bild, “a rise in the inflation rate to 4 percent is absolutely possible” in the next two to three years.

Postbank chief economist Marco Bargel agreed, telling the same paper that a 4 percent inflation rate was “realistic – even for several years.”

Germany’s inflation has generally been low in recent years, given workers’ wage restraint and the government’s fiscal tightness. The rate for 2010 was just 1.1 percent.

A key reason for the anticipated inflation spike was the ECB could be forced into a “looser monetary policy without large interest rate rises,” Mayer said.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet over the weekend urged central banks to pay attention to inflationary threats from rising commodity prices, which led many to believe the ECB may be moving toward rate hikes.

The news came as the European Financial Stability Facility staged Tuesday a landmark five-year bond auction worth €5 billion to raise funds for Ireland and help calm financial markets.

Asian bidders snapped up more than one third of the total in what EFSF head Klaus Regling said demonstrated market confidence in the 17-nation eurozone, after the turmoil of massive bailouts for Greece and Ireland last year.

“This must be seen as a big success,” Regling told a press briefing near Frankfurt after the figures were released.

“It may well be a turning point” in the eurozone debt crisis, he added.

Demand for the first debt issue by the facility, which was set up on June 7, was “record breaking,” with bids for €44.5 billion, almost nine times as much as was on offer, an EFSF statement said.

“The huge investor interest confirms confidence in the strategy adopted to restore financial stability in the euro area,” Regling said.

The so-called book building process used to establish buyers was completed in a blistering 15 minutes, the EFSF head said. A yield or interest rate of 2.89 percent would be paid on the top-rated bonds and Ireland would borrow €3.3 billion of the amount raised at a higher rate once fees and other charges were taken into account.

“I think the cost for Ireland will be around 6.0 percent” but the precise figure could only be established once the cash reserve and an additional loan buffer have been reinvested, Regling said.

The Local/AFP/djw

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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