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‘No housing bubble in Sweden’: central bank

Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, does not see a housing bubble or bubble-like behaviour in the housing market, according to a high-ranking official at the institution.

'No housing bubble in Sweden': central bank

However, Riksbank vice director Barbro Wickman-Parak sees growing household debt as a problem.

“But this is a difficult matter. One cannot exclude that there is a certain overvaluation that may be due to some over-optimism in terms of the continuing development of interest rates,” she said at a hearing on the development of the housing market by Sweden’s parliament’s, the Riksdag’s, finance committee.

Wickman-Parak said that the growth in Swedish household debt was alarming. Borrowing is increasing by 8 percent per year, which is unsustainable at current levels.

“We have a debt ratio that we have not seen anything equivalent to,” she said.

Wickman-Parak added that it is difficult to tackle the developments in the market simply by sticking to the inflation target. However, interest rates must be raised to meet the inflation target, as well as to dampen household borrowing.

Despite the warnings, Financial Markets Minister Peter Norman sees no immediate threat of a bubble developing in the housing market.

“There is no immediate threat to financial stability, but we are concerned that the threat could extend in the future,” he said.

Norman singled out the housing market, household debt and bank expansion as three worrying factors.

According to Norman, there are several measures that the government can resort to if it becomes necessary, but there is no need for them so far. Without specifying what could be done in the first place, Norman suggested several possibilities.

They include reducing the opportunities for the deduction of interest expenses, abolishing interest deductions for consumer credit, amortisation requirements, changes in capital coverage requirements for banks and stamp duty.

“There are a large number of tools and the government is largely prepared to intervene,” he said.

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ECONOMY

Riksbank deputy ‘open to reconsidering raising rates in April’

Martin Flodén, the deputy governor of Sweden's Riksbank, has questioned whether the central bank needs to bring in further rate rises in April, following bank runs on two niche banks in the US and a crisis of confidence at Credit Suisse.

Riksbank deputy 'open to reconsidering raising rates in April'

Uncertainty in the financial market following bank runs in the US and a crisis at Swiss bank Credit Suisse could have changed the playing field, he told TT in an interview. 

“It affects which level the key interest rates need to be in order to have a contractive effect,” he said, referring to the recent days of financial market turbulence. “We can’t just look at key interest rates by themselves. It’s the key interest rate in combination with all of these developments which determines how tight financial policy will be.”

He said it was not yet obvious what decision should be taken. 

“It’s clear that monetary policy needs to stay tight, but what level of interest is that? We need to assess all of the current developments there.” 

‘Could go in different directions’

In theory, there could be such a serious financial crisis, with such a severe effect on lending and banks’ financing costs, that the central bank would be forced to adopt supportive measures, even lowering the key rate.

Flodén doesn’t think Sweden is in that situation, although he thinks there’s a possibility it could happen.

“It’s not something I can see happening right now, at least, although this could go in different directions.” 

He added that he doesn’t see any reason for any “special concern”, toning down the risk that a crisis for two smaller niche banks in the US and at Credit Suisse could affect the Swedish financial system.

“Of course, it could lead to some stress, but there aren’t actually any particular signs in Sweden, which are worrying me,” he said. 

Flodén is one of six members of the Riksbank executive board, led by Riksbank chief Erik Thedéen, responsible for making a decision on whether interest rates will go up again at the end of April.

The Riksbank has indicated that a rate hike of between 0.25 and 0.5 percent from the current 3 percent rate could be necessary.

Flodén described the most recent inflation statistics for February, where inflation unexpectedly rose to 12 percent, as “not good at all”. So-called KPIF inflation, where the effect of mortgage rates is removed, rose from 9.3 percent to 8.7 percent in January. The Riksbank’s goal is 2 percent.

“It’s clear that inflation is still far too high and that monetary policy needs to be focussed on combatting inflation,” he said, adding that inflation statistics for March will be released before the central bank is due to make a decision on whether to raise rates or not in April.

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