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German business confidence highest since reunification

German firms are the most optimistic they have been since reunification in 1990, a key indicator showed Wednesday, raising hopes Europe's powerhouse could drag the debt-wracked eurozone from the abyss.

German business confidence highest since reunification
Light at the end of the tunnel? Photo: DPA

The Ifo institute’s measure of business confidence soared to 109.3 points in November, smashing expectations of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, who expected little change from last month’s reading of 107.7 points.

“I confirm it’s the highest level since reunification,” an Ifo spokesman told AFP. Analysts were euphoric, with one harking back to the “economic miracle” enjoyed by Germany after World War II.

“Maybe it is a miracle after all,” said Carsten Brzeski from ING bank. “Amidst new financial market turmoil and sovereign debt woes in the eurozone, the German economy seems to be an island of happiness.”

Andreas Rees, from Unicredit, also drew a parallel between the crisis in the eurozone and the seemingly unstoppable rise of its biggest economy. “Ever heard of the European debt crisis?” he asked.

“Looking at the latest Ifo index suggests that German companies are currently shrugging off all these concerns. Instead, they concentrate on the positive aspects of the current upswing, becoming more and more optimistic.

“It is difficult not to become euphoric,” he concluded. A separate index measuring how firms assess their current situation also rose strongly, to 112.3 points from 110.2 in October, its highest level since May 2007.

“The upswing in the German economy is gaining more and more strength,” said Hans-Werner Sinn, the president of the Ifo institute.

Europe’s economic powerhouse suffered more than most during the downturn as its export motor spluttered amid lower global demand for goods “made in Germany.”

In 2009, the economy contracted by a bitter 4.7 percent, the worst recession in more than sixty years.

But Chancellor Angela Merkel pumped tens of billions of euros into the economy, introduced short-term working schemes to keep a lid on unemployment and has overseen an impressive bounce back as exports recovered.

Statistics released on 12 November showed that economic growth in Germany slowed slightly in the third quarter to 0.7 percent but this was still far ahead of fellow eurozone giants France and Italy.

Berlin expects growth of 3.4 percent this year, with domestic demand now also joining the party, contributing to more balanced and sustainable output, say economists.

“Unemployment is now under 3 million and will be on average 2.9 million next year,” said a triumphant Merkel in a speech to parliament earlier Wednesday.

However, tempering the euphoria has been some worrying signs from industry, with both production and orders disappointing recently, leading some to believe Germany is heading for a sharper-than-expected slowdown in 2011.

The government itself has forecast growth of 1.8 percent for next year.

Nevertheless, in the words of Jennifer McKeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics, “the survey suggests that the German economy should keep the eurozone recovery going in the very near term at least.”

“The German economy seems to defy gravity,” judged Barclays Capital in a research note.

AFP/rm

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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