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2010 NOBEL PRIZES

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Three share Nobel Prize in economics

Three researchers were awarded the the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics "for their analysis of markets with search frictions".

Three share Nobel Prize in economics

The prize, officially known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, was awarded to three economists, two based in the US and one in the UK.

Peter A. Diamond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Dale T. Mortensen of Northwestern University, outside of Chicago, and Christopher A. Pissarides of the London School of Economics and Political Science, will equally share the 10 million kronor ($1.5 million).

Reached on the phone in the UK, Pissarides tried to express his feelings to the Swedish Academy and the press gathered to witness the announcement.

“It’s a mixture of surprise and happiness,” he said.

“You don’t believe it will ever happen until after you’ve been told it has happened.”

Pissarides and his two fellow Laureates received the award for having created a theoretical framework for “search markets” in which buyers and sellers have a hard time finding one another.

The most common example of a search market is the labour market, where job seekers and employers must take time finding the right fit before a transaction–in this case, the acceptance of a job offer–can be completed.

Diamond has analysed the foundations of search markets, while Mortensen and Pissarides expanded the theory and applied it to the labor market.

The models developed from the trio’s work in the understanding of how unemployment, job vacancies, and wages are affected by regulation and economic policy such as the level of unemployment benefits or rules governing hiring and firing.

One conclusion from the models is that more generous unemployment benefits give rise to higher unemployment and longer search times.

“What we should really be doing is make sure the unemployed do not stay unemployed for too long, to try to give them direct work experience,” Pissarides said.

Search market theories have also been applied to the housing market, another instance where it can take time for multiple buyers and sellers to find one another.

Diamond, a US citizen, received his PhD from MIT in 1963 and then spent three years at the University of California, Berkeley before returning to be a professor at MIT.

Pissarides, who holds both Cypriot and UK citizenship, gained his PhD from the London School of Economics (LSE) in 1973. After stints at the Central Bank of Cyprus and University of Southampton, he returned to LSE in 1976. Since 2006 he has served as the Norman Sosnow Professor of Economics.

Mortensen, also a US citizen, received his PhD from Carnegie Mellon University in 1967, although his teaching career at Northwestern University began two years earlier in 1965. He is currently the Ida C. Cook Professor of Economics at Northwestern University.

The Nobel economics prize is not is not one of the original prizes created by Alfred Nobel, but was established in 1968 on the 300th anniversary, of the Riksbank, which is responsible for paying out the prize money.

The prize is awarded every year to a person or persons in the field of economic sciences who have produced work of outstanding importance, and the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences chooses recipients according to the same principles as for the original Nobel Prizes.

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PROPERTY

Swedes have not been this pessimistic about house prices since 2008

House price optimism has taken a nosedive, according to the latest indicator report from Sweden's SEB bank. Sentiment among Swedes is now the most negative it has been since the 2008 financial crisis. What's going on?

Swedes have not been this pessimistic about house prices since 2008

How pessimistic are Swedish households? 

Very.

Households’ expectations for housing prices have fallen sharply this month, with SEB’s indicator dropping eleven percentage points in July, from -16 to -27, the lowest level it has hit since the financial crisis in 2008. 

The indicator, which has historically been a reliable predictor of house prices, turned negative in June for the first time since the pandemic hit in April 2020. 

The indicator is calculated by subtracting of the percentage of respondents who think house prices will fall from the percentage who think they will rise.

In July, the proportion of households surveyed who expected rising prices fell to 24 percent, down from 31 percent in June, while the proportion expecting falling prices rose to 51 percent from 47 percent. 

What is the reason for households’ pessimism? 

Américo Fernández, SEB’s private economist, told The Local that households in Sweden had reacted strongly to the decision of Sweden’s Riksbank central bank to hike rates, with most believing that the base interest rate would rise to 1.10 percent within a year.  At the same time, he said, households understood that inflation would reduce household spending power, making it harder for people to service large mortgages. 

“The result is not that surprising since inflation is on its highest levels since early 1990s and interest rates are increasing rapidly,” he told The Local. “These joint factors make it much more difficult for households to consume at the same high levels, meaning that they have decrease some of their consumption, and new mortgages and houses will be on that list.”.

He said it remained to be seen whether expectations improve again rapidly, as they did at the time of the pandemic, or would remain low. 

“Now the question is if this decline in expectations will turn around rapidly like during early pandemic (march/April 2020) or if it will continue in a negative slope like in the financial crisis of 2008.”

How badly has consumers’ spending power been hit by rate rises in Sweden? 

According to Christina Nyman, chief economist at Handelsbanken, a major Swedish bank, rising interest rates are already weighing on consumers’ buying power.

“For a household with loans of SEK 3m, this translates to additional costs of SEK 3,300 per month, which we believe is putting a cap on other consumption,” she said of the Riksbank’s rate increases so far. 

She warns in the bank’s most recent Global Macro Forecast that if the Riksbank speeds up its rate hikes, it could lead to a proper recession in Sweden.

“An acceleration of the rate-hike program could result in a drop in housing prices and a more severe recession,” she said.

Are we going to see a housing crash?

To qualify as a housing crash, home prices need to plummet by at least 15%, something which has not happened in Sweden since the 2008 financial crisis when prices in Sweden fell by as much as 20%, before rebounding gradually over the following years.

So far, it looks more like house prices in Sweden are set to decline more gradually, as there has been no new shock such as a stockmarket crash or banking crisis. 

How are homeowners responding? 

According to SEB’s report, 12 percent of households who currently have a fluctuating rate mortgage said in July that they are now planning to move to a fixed rate mortgage to avoid being hit by further rate hikes from the Riksbank, an increase of one percentage point from the June survey. 

The proportion who say they have already fixed the rate on their mortgage has risen by four percentage points to 37%. 

How might the average person be impacted?

Future buyers will profit from a drop in prices, despite all the suffering that frequently precedes a property catastrophe. On the other hand, the crash could be catastrophic for homeowners because they might have to sell their homes for less than what they paid.

Families who are forced to sell because they cannot afford their mortgage payments, for instance, or those who experience unemployment or illness, may therefore suffer significant capital losses.

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