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ECONOMY

New data highlights economy’s resiliency

German business confidence posted Friday a surprise rise to levels last seen in mid-2007, suggesting Europe's powerhouse economy will remain resilient and not return to recession.

New data highlights economy's resiliency
Photo: DPA

The Ifo economic research institute said its widely-watched business confidence index edged up to 106.8 points from 106.7 points in August.

The latest figures “reinforce the view that the German economy will prove quite resilient against any downward influences from a weakening global economy,” IHS Global Insight senior economist Timo Klein said.

The index had been expected to slip to 106.5 points, according to analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

But “firms are again more satisfied with their business situation than in the previous month,” Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn said in a statement.

In the manufacturing sector, sentiment slipped slightly but retailers were more positive, with the current situation assessed to be at its best since the boom that followed German reunification in 1990.

The outlook also perked up in the construction sector, raising the overall reading to levels not seen since the global financial system was slammed by a meltdown of the US market for high risk mortgages in mid-2007.

“Double-dip fears are not shared by the company captains polled by the Ifo institute,” Morgan Stanley counterpart Elga Bartsch said.

Klein explained that “for Germany, with a recovering labour market supporting private consumption, the dependence on exports and thus global demand growth is being reduced at present.”

Ifo’s report contrasted with gloomy news Thursday when data showed activity across the 16-nation eurozone hit a seven-month low in September, according to the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) compiled by London-based data and research group Markit.

“The Ifo business climate is less influenced than the purchasing managers’ index by factors such as the year-on-year trend for order intake and production … earnings also play a significant role,” Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen said.

Ifo’s forward looking expectations sub-index also dropped however.

The measure of business expectations for the next six months fell to 103.9 points in September from 105.2 points in August, suggesting the export-led economy will cool later this year in line with weaker activity abroad.

The Ifo institute surveys around 7,000 German manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail companies each month to establish the widely-followed index of business sentiment.

The German central bank and economists now expect full-year growth of at least 3.0 percent, probably surpassing advances elsewhere in the eurozone, and in Japan and the United States.

In October, the German government is expected to raise its official 2010 forecast of 1.4 percent growth.

UniCredit economist Alexander Koch was among the many who believe the economy will see slower growth later this year but not fall back into recession.

“Barring a global double-dip, the cooling down is not likely to turn into an outright downswing,” he said.

AFP/ka

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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