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ECONOMY

Investors fear growth won’t last, ZEW finds

German investor confidence has fallen sharply this month on concerns that the strong recovery seen recently in Europe's biggest economy will not last, the closely watched ZEW survey showed Tuesday.

Investors fear growth won't last, ZEW finds
Photo: DPA

“The decrease … indicates that the enormous growth observed in the second quarter is unlikely to continue,” the ZEW institute said, with weakening conditions abroad likely to hit exports, Germany’s main growth driver.

The ZEW’s monthly sentiment indicator, based on a survey of 284 analysts and institutional investors, fell 7.2 points to 14.0 points, below the indicator’s historical average of 27.3 points and a much sharper drop than feared.

Last week, data showed that German gross domestic product (GDP) surged in the second quarter at its fastest rate since reunification 20 years ago, with output soaring 2.2 percent compared to the previous three-month period.

This followed figures showing that exports, the backbone of the German economy, rocketed 28.5 percent year-on-year in June to reach €86.5 billion, close to pre-crisis levels.

But Germany appears to be in a league of its own amid increasing signs elsewhere, not least the United States and China, that the rebound seen in recent months may be running out of steam.

The US Federal Reserve warned last week that the recovery in the United States, the world’s biggest economy, would be “more modest” than expected, sending financial markets tumbling worldwide.

“Given that economic growth worldwide is losing momentum, the euphoria about the growth rates in some industries is making financial market experts feel uneasy,” ZEW chief Wolfgang Franz said in a statement.

Jennifer McKeown, European expert at Capital Economics, said the fall in the index would “dent hopes that the strong recovery seen in the second quarter could continue.

“(As) global demand growth slows further and consumers remain reluctant to spend, the recovery is likely to be fairly short-lived,” she said.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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