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ECONOMY

Economy forecasters tip 2.5 percent growth

Germany’s fast-recovering economy could grow by 2.5 percent this year, the respected IWH forecasters predicted Tuesday, helping cement the widespread confidence that the rebound is here to stay.

Economy forecasters tip 2.5 percent growth
Photo: DPA

“The growth will, over the whole year, probably be in the range of 2.5 percent,” IWH forecaster Udo Ludwig told daily Berliner Zeitung.

The Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle had previously assumed growth of about 2 percent. Other forecasters have also been revising their predictions upwards for the year – mainly on the back of booming exports – but the IWH tip is the rosiest yet from a major economic institute.

“I think one can be even more optimistic for this year, given the business rebound of the past months,” Ludwig said.

He said Germany’s surprisingly strong performance amid the lingering worldwide crisis could be largely explained by the fact that it had “profited from the strong sales to developing countries such as China, India, Brazil and also Russia.”

In mid-July, Economy Minister Rainer Brüderle also confirmed that growth would probably be stronger this year than previously thought. The government had predicted a 1.4 percent expansion this year, but Brüderle said he was certain it would be higher than that.

The government will release its second quarter growth figures on Friday. Trade figures released on Monday showed that exports rocketed 28.5 percent to €86.5 billion in June from the same month a year earlier, sparking excitement among economists.

“This has improved chances of the German economy having grown more rapidly in the second quarter than previously assumed,” Commerzbank analyst Simon Junker told news agency AFP.

ING senior economist Carsten Brzeski said: “The German economy is bound to see its strongest quarterly growth rate since reunification.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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