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TRADE

Exports soar as economy surges ahead

Germany's powerful export machine cranked into high gear in June, official data showed on Monday, likely driving growth across much of Europe as the continent's biggest economy thundered ahead.

Exports soar as economy surges ahead
Photo: DPA

Analysts said the strong figures bode well for German second quarter growth data due Friday and, given the knock-on effect, should help counter complaints that Germany’s focus on exports crowds out less competitive neighbours.

The June trade surplus of €14.1 billion ($18.7 billion) was up 44 percent from May as exports rocketed 28.5 percent from a year earlier to €86.5 billion, close to a record high set in October 2008.

“This has improved (the) chances of the German economy having grown more rapidly in the second quarter than previously assumed,” Commerzbank analyst Simon Junker said.

“The German economy is bound to see its strongest quarterly growth rate since reunification” in October 1990, ING senior economist Carsten Brzeski added.

Germany, the world’s second biggest exporter after China, suffered its worst post-war recession last year but has bounced back as growing economies snap up German goods.

On the imports side, the picture was even stronger – good for Germany and its European trading partners whose economies benefit in the German slipstream.

Imports soared 31.7 percent to €72.4 billion, the Destatis statistics office said, the all-time record since figures were first compiled in 1950. For the first half of 2010, the trade surplus jumped 26 percent from the same period a year earlier to €74.6 billion, Destatis said.

“We’re seeing Germany doing better than the others right now but to some extent this is also because it did worse than the others in 2009,” Deutsche Bank senior European economist Gilles Moec told AFP.

Since then, exports have picked up markedly, in particular to Asia which puts a high value on German machine tools, autos and chemicals.

“Exports are doing so well that they are helping to produce more jobs and more wages in Europe and this in turn is producing more domestic demand,” Moec said.

Berlin has been criticised by France and others for not boosting domestic consumption and relying on exports for economic growth but Moec pointed out that household savings rates in Germany were actually lower than in France, Italy or Spain.

“This debate really needs to stop,” the French economist said.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has been dubbed “Madame Non” by some for her perceived reluctance to spend heavily on promoting domestic consumption but that is not an accurate picture.

“Germany is the only European country which is actually adding to the stimulus in 2010,” Moec countered.

Germany’s diversified industrial supplier base means exports often have parts sourced from companies in central or eastern Europe, and also in Spain, he noted.

“If Germany does well, this seems to have a very nice second-round effect on Spanish exports,” Moec said.

Europe’s economy should thus again get support from Germany before a forecast slowdown later this year.

“Though overall economic conditions remain good, it seems the best days are coming to an end,” Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen cautioned.

In the meantime, manufacturers have well-stocked order books and their contribution to European growth will be welcome.

European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said on Thursday that second- and third-quarter figures “are likely to be better than we had anticipated.

“We are now … in a situation which is obviously better than before,” he said before quickly adding: “I don’t declare victory, we remain cautious.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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