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ECONOMY

Trade unions switch to aggressive strategy

After years of agreeing to moderate pay hikes to safeguard jobs, Germany's powerful unions are gearing up for a dramatic change of strategy, bidding for wage gains that bosses say could derail the recovery.

Trade unions switch to aggressive strategy
Photo: DPA

Heavily dependent on exporting quality German-made products, the economy, Europe’s biggest, was hit harder than most by the global crisis but now appears to be recovering faster as demand across the globe picks up.

Foreign orders are booming, the country’s low unemployment has been hailed as a “jobs miracle,” top firms are reporting strong profits and consumer and business confidence levels are soaring.

And having contributed, they say, to this performance by not pushing for pay rises during the tough times, trade unions want a slice of the pie now the recovery is setting in.

“In this first wage round after the crisis, we want to ensure employees get their fair share of the upswing,” Berthold Huber, head of IG Metall, one of Europe’s biggest unions, wrote in the Rheinischer Merkur daily. “That is good for the employees, good for the economy and secures jobs.”

“We want our part of the recovery,” said Oliver Burkhard, another senior official from IG Metall, which represents more than two million workers in the steel and metalworking industry. The unions have German public opinion and many economists on their side.

A recent poll for ARD television showed that seven in 10 Germans thought union demands for a three-percent pay rise was “appropriate.”

Peter Bofinger, one of the “five wise men” that advise Chancellor Angela Merkel on economic policy, called for a “strong increase in wages of at least three percent” saying it would boost Germany’s sluggish domestic demand.

Horst Seehofer, head of the Christian Social Union, Bavarian sister party of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, said in a recent interview he “absolutely” understood union demands for higher wages.

Unions have been “unbelievably responsible” in the past two or three years, which has enabled Germany to overcome the global slump better than many of its European neighbours, Seehofer said.

Fearing mass lay-offs amid plunging growth, IG Metall agreed in February a two-year deal with a pay freeze and a one-off payment in 2010 followed by a 2.7 percent hike next year.

On the other side of the negotiating table, employers’ federation head Dieter Hundt warned it was “premature” to talk of wage hikes as the German economy is not yet completely out of the woods.

Some also caution that the unions’ change of strategy could lead to German inflation taking off and eventually to European Central Bank interest rates climbing off their record low levels.

“German inflation slumbers but the alarm has been set,” Commerzbank economist Eckart Tuchtfeld wrote Friday in a research note about German wage policy.

But the Financial Times Deutschland said bosses should not fear increased union pay demands as labour leaders have shown they can be responsible when times are tough.

“For unions to demand massive wage increases in light of the DAX (stock market) … would of course be ridiculous, as the upswing is still too fresh and risky,” the newspaper wrote in a recent editorial.

“But companies should not fear moderate demands, as unions have actually in recent years demonstrated that they are more sensible than some have claimed.”

Nevertheless, Hundt warned that workers should wait until the upswing has fully taken hold before expecting a share of the proceeds. “We must not put the current recovery at risk,” he told German radio. “It’s still not yet time to start partying.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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