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Why every dentist needs a Prussian finca

What do the country homes of dentists in eastern Germany have to do with the election of country's next president? Roger Boyes, the Berlin correspondent for the British newspaper The Times, explains.

Why every dentist needs a Prussian finca
Photo: DPA

Dentists are a barometer of economic crisis. Thanks to the corrosive effect of sugar, dentists are never short of a euro. And they are always on the lookout for safe investments.

So obviously I paused for reflection recently when I saw a dentist acquaintance in Berlin loading up his car. His wife, formerly his assistant, was ticking items from a list, just as she used to register the cavities in patients’ molars and incisors. Crate of mineral water? Check. Crate of beer? Check. Picnic cooler bag? Check. Bicycle rack? Check. Blankets, two portable thermos flasks, a portable television (for the Germany vs Australia match). An inflatable dinghy. Mosquito spray.

“You’ll need a whole caravan of camels – thank God, you don’t have children as well,” I said, displaying my usual diplomatic flair.

“Instead we have a house in the country,” said the dentist’s wife, casting a professional glance at my jaw structure. “In Brandenburg.”

Brandenburg, where else? At a stroke I had identified a new urban trend for Berliners: the weekend cottage in the countryside surrounding the German capital. A Prussian finca, if you will.

We have historically low interest rates (which is only fair since banks are getting their money for almost nothing), house prices are low, especially in economically depressed Brandenburg. What could be a better investment in uncertain times than bricks and mortar? The stressed Berliner is discovering the splendid isolation of the eastern German countryside.

Of course, the problem is that the big-city Berliners are finally putting down roots in the east, but without the slightest intention of making contact with the easterners, or Ossis as they’re still known. The new weekenders let their children play in the lakes and recover a kind of rural innocence but tell them not to play with the local kids. As for the adults, they seem to be treating their weekends out of Berlin as a kind of marital therapy. Away from their work, their over-ambitious friends and their Blackberries, couples have to talk to each other.

In case Dagmar wants to talk through their problems a little too intensely, Carsten takes a fishing rod and makes his way out of the house. He naturally hates the enforced stillness of fishing but it is surely better than going down to the village pub and getting to know the Ossi natives.

You will have likely seen the reports on The Local some weeks ago of Gabriela S., an accountant who had left communist East Germany in 1988 to settle in the Stuttgart area. She was turned down for a job and later saw the reason why: a handwritten note on her application form said “Ossi” with a minus sign next to it.

She took the company to court on ethnic discrimination. Her claim was rejected but it has gone into appeal; reason enough for Germans to debate as to whether Ossis really form their own ethnic group after suffering through 40 years of communist dictatorship.

And that certainly is how many of the new weekend colonisers are behaving towards the people that already live there. Brandenburg has become interesting for Berliners because of its spectacular landscapes and solid real estate, but not for its inhabitants.

Perhaps it doesn’t matter too much. The English have bought cottages in Wales for years, and looked down on the Welsh for centuries, yet the world has not collapsed. Buying up Brandenburg may eventually spark some curiosity about the lifestyle and attitudes of the natives. I hope so: I have always been confused by the lack of western curiosity about the east. Why is it that the average Rhinelander would rather go to Disneyland than Mecklenburg?

That is why I would like to see Joachim Gauck, a former civil rights activist in the east, as the next German president. He has the ability to develop intelligently this rather clumsy and unfruitful two-decade-old conversation between the two halves of Germany.

With the government’s proposed austerity programme likely to hit eastern German communities harder than those in the west, the country needs someone with political authority to explain to easterners that the federal government is not fundamentally against them.

These days not even Chancellor Angela Merkel seems to speak up for Ossis even though she’s from the east herself. Make Gauck president and I guarantee that within four years The Left party, which has its roots in the formerly communist half of the country, will have lost half its support.

I am of course aware that my credibility as a prophet has been under strain since my last prediction that Germany’s teen singing sensation Lena Meyer-Landrut could not possibly win Eurovision. The numbers were against Lena as they are against Gauck, who has little chance of being elected later this month. But happily I was wrong about Lena. Hopefully I’ll be wrong again.

Roger Boyes’ new novel, “Ossi Forever” is now available.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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