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ECONOMY

Anxious middle class shrinks as gulf between rich and poor grows

A new study released on Thursday said the divide between Germany’s rich and poor continues to grow and is squeezing out the country's anxious middle class.

Anxious middle class shrinks as gulf between rich and poor grows
Photo: DPA

The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) research showed the number of both poor and rich households growing in absolute terms – and for the last 10 years the impoverished households have become progressively poorer.

The polarising trend, studied between 2001 and 2009, means that the middle class has fallen from 64 percent to only 60 percent of German society in the past decade.

“On the one side the number of people living in luxury is growing, while on the other side the number of those who must live with low incomes, or are even poor, grows,” DIW researchers wrote.

This is creating a “status panic” within the middle class, they said.

Low incomes, according to the DIW, are those that have a take-home pay of less than 70 percent of the average net salary. For a couple with two children younger than 14, this would equal €1,800 including state parental benefits after taxes.

In 2000, some 18 percent of German households fell into this group – but jumped to 22 percent in 2009, the DIW found.

Meanwhile the wealthy – or those who take home above 150 percent more than the average income (€3,870) are multiplying. Their numbers grew from 16 to 18 percent in the same time period, though there was a slight reduction following the financial crisis.

The development is dangerous for social stability, the DIW told the paper.

“Particularly among the middle class, whose status depends on income and not assets, there is a sensitivity to developments that threaten this status,” the paper quoted, adding that this could fuel xenophobia among those looking for a scapegoat.

With this in mind, the DIW experts were highly critical of the government’s recent decision to cut spending with a record austerity package, which aims to slash €80 billion from the budget by 2014, including €11.2 billion next year, much of it from social welfare benefits.

DIW economist Jan Goebel said it was inappropriate for the “concrete suggestions of the savings package to actually only affect the lower income levels,” raising the question as to “just why the people with higher incomes mustn’t bear any of the savings.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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