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ECONOMY

Economic recovery picking up speed

The German economic recovery has accelerated in recent months, the central bank said Wednesday, fuelling expectation it could raise its growth forecast for Europe's biggest economy.

Economic recovery picking up speed
Photo: DPA

Following a sharp slowdown during a particularly difficult winter, the economy will pick up again at a much more sustained rhythm, the Bundesbank said in its monthly report for May.

German industrial production in particular “will markedly accelerate the movement” and exports will once again play a leading role, the bank said. Companies will benefit from their presence in non-European countries that currently post strong growth rates, especially China.

“In addition, German exporters are benefiting from recent changes at the level of international exchange rates,” the Bundesbank said, a reference to the euro’s fall in value against other major currencies.

In the construction sector, the central bank forecast a rapid pickup in activity owing to a high level of orders.

With respect to consumption, the bank was more cautious, noting it would be less affected by fallout from the expiration of the government’s car scrapping premium in late 2009.

The latest measure of consumer confidence by the GfK research institute, which was also released on Wednesday, did not augur well meanwhile. German households are worried about their savings owing to the eurozone financial crisis and the euro’s decline, GfK said.

Resistance shown by the labour market and a better than expected quarterly increase of 0.2 percent in gross domestic product in the first quarter have not encouraged shoppers to increase spending.

Nevertheless the central bank’s overall positive outlook suggested it could raise forecasts for economic growth, which are to be revised in June.

The Bundesbank currently expects growth of around 1.6 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Wednesday that the recovery in Germany was fundamentally robust and would pick up from the second quarter as exports benefited from a rebound in world trade.

The OECD forecast output for 2010 would be 1.9 percent, from a contraction of 4.9 percent last year, and then rising to 2.1 percent in 2011.

“Notwithstanding the temporary weakness, the underlying growth momentum is intact and suggests solid growth going forward,” the OECD said.

Several economists have already forecast German growth of two percent or more this year.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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