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Germany’s golden future

With skittish Germans fearing the imminent collapse of the euro, Roger Boyes, the Berlin correspondent for the British newspaper The Times, decides it’s time to buy gold. Or sell it.

Germany's golden future
Photo: DPA

Let no one tell you that the German economy is stagnating. Across the country, shops have been opening up, offering to buy and sell gold. Some have bodyguards treading the pavement outside, some only open their doors if you ring a bell like a brothel, and all have heavy iron or steel window shutters that come clanking down at night.

Germans seem to have a great deal of metal in their mouths because the shops, new or newly painted, are plastered with signs announcing: Best prices paid for Jewellery, Coins and Zahngold – that is, gold fillings. How does that work with Zahngold?

Presumably people are not striding in and ripping out their preciously filled molars in order to raise the cash to pay the rent. I enquired in a shop in Berlin. A very pleasant Lebanese trader told me that customers are coming in with their own Zahngold – kept after they had their fillings exchanged at the dentist – in little bags, he weighs the gold on a delicate scale and makes an offer. As simple as that.

He made it sound as if he was selling clementines. Some of the gold fillings have been inherited from parents, handed to the children by the crematorium management. And because the selling of teeth seems to be such an intimate process, almost a betrayal of one’s own body, the customers tell stories about their lives, their financial desperation, to minimise their guilt. Zahngold is a last resort.

The current price of gold makes it tempting though. Since the financial crisis prices have been rising steadily, but the decisive moment almost certainly this month when €750 billion was thrown into a pot to protect the value of the euro. The move might have briefly subdued the markets, but it panicked my German neighbours. It was a clear signal that their euro savings might be about to melt. The pound and the dollar don’t look much healthier. A good time to buy gold. Or sell it. Gold is a hedge against inflation, but also a strong performer in times of deflation. Whatever happens next, gold is interesting. In May, it has been selling for more than $1,200 an ounce – a 35 percent rise since the start of the financial crisis in August 2007.

So that explains why places buying Zahngold have become a fixed part of Germany’s urban landscape, sandwiched between the internet cafe and the solarium. The more the governments do to avert crisis, the more crisis-alert the population becomes. And in Germany that means the 1920s atavism, returning to the sense that all money is vulnerable.

A new place has opened up in a posh bit of western Berlin, buying and selling paintings and porcelain as well as gold coins. Not at all a gold-filling establishment. The owner told me that trade is booming – with customers who are buying gold, and people who are selling in order to raise the cash to buy property. The last time it peaked, he explained, was in 1980 after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. It surged from $400 to $850 in five short weeks. A year later it was down to $300. It took about 20 years for prices to recover.

Germans have become the world’s biggest gold-hoarders ahead of the Americans and the Swiss. Gold has to be more than a measure of lack of confidence in the global economy. There must be a stronger attraction.

My own fascination with the metal began as a schoolboy when I slipped into my local cinema – through the fire exit since I was too young for an adult movie – to watch the James Bond film “Goldfinger.” The evil villain Goldfinger planned to explode an atomic bomb in Fort Knox, destroy the US gold reserves, thus making his own bullion reserves ten times more valuable. In real life he would have made much more just by keeping his gold in the safe. No matter, he got to paint a live naked woman in real gold paint and that was what most interested me in 1964.

There is something fetishist about gold, perhaps that is what makes me feel a bit queasy when I pass Zahngold shops. Many years ago a crazy Italian artist called Piero Manzoni created 90 small tin cans, sealed with the text Merda d’Artista – artist’s shit. Supposedly that was what was inside the cans–an immaculately shaped, carefully weighed specimen of his excrement. Each 30 gramme container was priced by weight, based on the current value of gold, which was around $1.12 in 1960.

It was impossible to open the cans since exposing the artist’s shit to the air would have destroyed the art work and made it worthless. Over the years Manzoni’s crap has increased in value even faster than gold – one shit-can fetched $80,000 at a recent auction – and more than 40 years after his death he is still regarded as one of the great jokers of the art world. His point: the price of gold bears as much connection to reality as the price of human excrement. It glitters, it catches the light, but it is largely an act of imagination.

Even so, the Berlin city government could do worse than adopt Manzoni’s idea as a solution for the German capital’s horrendous dog poo problem. Merda di cani fixed at the price of gold? It could become the city’s greatest natural resource.

For more Roger Boyes, check out his website here.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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