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ECONOMY

After 3G hype, 4G frequencies to go on auction in Germany

A decade ago, telecoms paid big to snap up 3G mobile licenses and later regretted it. Now in Germany, the next generation 4G frequencies are about to go up for auction.

After 3G hype, 4G frequencies to go on auction in Germany
Photo: DPA

In 2000, at the height of the tech bubble, telecom operators fell over themselves to snap up 3G or third generation mobile licenses in an auction in Germany.

In the hangover that followed, successful bidders were left drowning in a sea of debt, and 3G, once it eventually got off the ground, proved something of a disappointment.

Ten years on, it is the turn of 4G frequencies to go under the hammer in the western city of Mainz on Monday. But the German government expects to reap only a fraction of the €50 billion ($67 billion) it received last time.

But with the new technology promising nothing less than a revolution, interest among firms like Britain’s Vodafone and T-Mobile is strong, with analysts predicting a windfall of €5 to €10 billion for Berlin.

This time around, operators are confident too that the technology will not disappoint and that it will be in the hands of consumers a lot sooner.

“Demand is well ahead of supply,” said Matthias Kurth, head of the German telecoms regulator running the auction, with “severe competition” among operators like Vodafone and T-Mobile to grab a piece of the 4G pie.

In Europe’s first 4G auction, a large part of what is up for grabs is the so-called “digital dividend,” a chunk of frequencies left unwanted by television companies following their switch from analogue to digital broadcasting.

The 4G technology, known as Long Term Evolution (LTE), will mean that using your mobile handset just to phone people will become old hat since it will allow data to be transferred at breakneck speeds.

The resulting downloading capacities will make the mobile phone a powerful tool for surfing the Internet. Phone calls, too, will occur by Internet telephony, as happens on PCs now with programs like Skype.

Another advantage for both firms and users of the new technology will be that remote areas currently with little or no high-speed Internet will soon be covered.

And with experts predicting a price war among operators, consumers may start to wonder whether they still need a mobile phone operator as well as a fixed net provider, since home computers could use the networks too.

“With LTE, mobile phone networks will become a real alternative to cable or DSL (broadband telephone connections),” said Herbert Merz, head of the German hightech association Bitkom.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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