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ECONOMY

Auto sales plunge but exports surge

German car sales plunged by 27 percent in March on a 12-month comparison but exports climbed owing to a rebound of global markets, figures from the VDA auto federation showed on Tuesday.

Auto sales plunge but exports surge
Photo: DPA

German sales had been boosted in 2009 by a state-funded car scrapping scheme that expired in early September, and had been expected to fall as the subsidy was removed.

A total of 294,500 vehicles were sold last month in Germany, the biggest European car market, a VDA statement said. Overall auto production climbed however by 27 percent to 555,300 vehicles, and exports leapt by 51 percent to 419,400 units.

And “in March alone, German auto manufacturers recorded a jump of almost 29

percent in foreign orders,” VDA president Matthias Wissmann was quoted as

saying.

German car makers were hit hard by a global sector crisis last year, though Volkswagen, the biggest European manufacturer, fared better than rivals as buyers boosted by cash-for-clunker subsidies ordered smaller, cheaper autos.

This year, the German market “will certainly not reach record levels set before the crisis, but we are expecting a good year for exports,” Wissmann said.

The auto sector has begun to consolidate via alliances to lower research and development costs, and Daimler, the German maker of Mercedes-Benz, is set to join Renault of France in a deal that would see them share know-how in building smaller cars.

German industry experts think that, by cooperating with Renault, Daimler could make savings of €600 million ($800 million) in its development sector.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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