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ECONOMY

Business confidence up for ninth consecutive month

German business confidence rose for the ninth month running in December, the closely watched Ifo survey indicated on Friday, in the latest sign that Europe's biggest economy is on the road to recovery.

Business confidence up for ninth consecutive month
Photo: DPA

The Ifo institute’s business climate index rose to 94.7 points from 93.9 points in November, narrowly beating expectations, the survey of around 7,000 German firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retail showed.

The result saw the index reach the highest level since July 2008, two months before the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers sent the global financial system close to collapse and the world economy into reverse.

The firms were also more upbeat on the current business situation and on their expectations for the future, the Ifo said.

“After the dramatic economic collapse last winter, these survey results should bring some Christmas cheer,” it said.

Jennifer McKeown from Capital Economics said that the Ifo survey was further evidence that the German economy is continuing to recover, albeit at a “fairly gradual” rate.

The result stood in contrast to recent figures showing that Germany’s recovery from its worst recession since World War II might have eased in the fourth quarter.

Industrial orders, for instance, fell 2.1 percent in October, their first drop in eight months, while output slipped 1.8 percent after two months of solid gains.

The Bundesbank central bank cautioned earlier this month that the latest economic data indicate that the country’s economic recovery was “likely less dynamic” at the start the final quarter of 2009.

Another survey, the ZEW investor sentiment index, fell in December for the third time running.

“December’s modest increase in the German Ifo index comes as a relief after the softer tone of some of the hard data lately,” McKeown said. “Although sentiment is now rising far more modestly than during the summer, the (Ifo) index points to a further sharp slowdown in the annual rate of economic contraction,” McKeown said.

The Bundesbank forecasts that German output will contract by around 4.9 percent this year before growing by 1.6 percent in 2010 and by 1.2 percent in 2011.

The recession has blown a huge hole in public finances, with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government predicting it will have to take on a record €85.8 billion in new debt in 2010.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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