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ECONOMY

Borg ‘more optimistic’ about Swedish economy

The Swedish economy is set to return to growth next year, but unemployment will remain high, according to a new forecast from finance minister Anders Borg.

Borg 'more optimistic' about Swedish economy

“The world has landed on its feet following the crisis,” Borg said in a statement when he presented the government’s latest economic forecast on Monday.

“There is reason to be more optimistic about developments in the Swedish economy,” he added.

According to the new forecast, Sweden’s GDP is expected to shrink by only 4.9 percent in 2009, compared to earlier forecasts predicting a drop of 5.2 percent.

Unemployment figures were also slightly improved in the new forecast, which projected a jobless rate of 8.5 percent, rather than the previously expected rate of 8.9 percent.

In 2010, the Swedish economy is expected to expand by 2.0 percent, a substantial boost to the previously projected growth rate of 0.6 percent.

For 2011 and 2012, Borg predicted growth of 3.4 and 3.3 percent respectively.

Unemployment was however expected to remain high in the coming years, in what is seen as a dark cloud hanging over the centre-right government.

Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt has made getting Swedes into the workforce his number one priority since coming to power in 2006 but due to the crisis the jobless rate has risen significantly, with less than a year to go until next September’s general election.

Borg predicted unemployment would hit 8.5 percent of the workforce this year and 10.7 percent next year, before falling back to 10.5 percent in 2011 and 9.8 percent in 2012.

“The situation on the labour market will remain difficult,” he warned.

He said economic stimulus measures implemented during the crisis ought to stay in place for the next few years.

“Economic policy must remain expansive in the future. It will be a challenge to create new jobs,” he stressed.

He added that Sweden has coped well with the economic downturn, but that work remains to be done.

“We’ve avoided a depression and we haven’t had a banking crisis, but fiscal policy must remain strongly expansive so that we can stop unemployment from taking hold,” said Borg.

“We’re not going to experience what we experienced in the 1990s with several years of redundancy notices. We’re already back to 1994 levels,” he added, referring to Sweden’s unemployment rate.

In light of the improved forecast, Borg concludes that Sweden’s recovery will be somewhat stronger and that stimulus measures ought to continue during 2010 and 2011.

In addition, public finances will gradually be returned to balance, and eventually to surplus, according to Borg.

However, instability in the Baltic countries and a second wave in the financial crisis continue to threaten Sweden’s nascent recovery.

But unlike many other countries, Sweden’s public finances are in good shape, as are private savings, providing the country with an added buffer against another possible downturn.

Borg also emphasized the positive spiral of increasing confidence in the economy.

Despite the government’s increased optimism about the Swedish economy, however, a forecast also released on Monday by Almega, an organization representing employers in the service sector, paints a somewhat less encouraging picture

According to Almega, the Swedish economy will contract by 4.5 percent in 2009, before growing by 0.7 percent in 2010 and 2.5 percent in 2011.

The organization’s economists project that 123,000 people will drop off the country’s payrolls this year, including 77,000 manufacturing workers and 15,000 from the private service sector.

While Almega also believes Sweden is heading out of the economic crisis, the group foresees a slow and prolonged recovery and urged the government to implement additional measures to speed up the process, including making it easier for companies to make investments and find workers that match companies’ specific needs.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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