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ANGELA MERKEL

Merkel admits tax cut plan may fail

Doubts grew on Monday over the viability of the new German government's choice to rely on tax cuts alone to boost the ailing economy, with Chancellor Angela Merkel herself admitting the plan might not work.

Merkel admits tax cut plan may fail
Photo: DPA

Under plans for the next four years, finalised on Friday by Merkel’s conservatives and her new pro-business partners, the tax burden on families and workers will be eased by some €24 billion.

Merkel believes the tax breaks will speed up Germany’s recovery from its worst recession since World War II, and that the economic growth that the cuts will trigger will help cover the cost.

But despite Germany’s mammoth and growing debt mountain, the new government has yet to detail any major cuts in spending while Germany’s nascent economic recovery remains fragile.

“We are focusing on growth, because growth is the way out of the crisis,” Merkel said on Monday.

“We made the decision to take a path fully directed towards growth, with no guarantee at all that it will work, but which offers the chance that it will work. By saving, saving, saving I see no chance of success,” she said.

Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union, were due to rubber-stamp the plans at party meetings on Monday. Their pro-business Free Democrat partners did so on Sunday.

Merkel, 55, Germany’s first chancellor from the former communist East and its first female leader, won a second term in general elections on September 27. She was due to be re-elected formally by MPs on Wednesday.

Andreas Rees, an economist at Unicredit bank, agreed: “It does not make sense to cut public spending already next year when unemployment is expected to soar by at least 500,000.”

Such a policy “would literally have been Russian roulette with possibly devastating effects on growth and employment,” Rees said.

But it is far from certain that what is essentially a gamble will work.

“For the moment, the new government is going with tax cuts for families and employees. It is unclear when it will be firms’ turn,” Klaus Zimmermann, head of the economic institute DIW, told the Berliner Zeitung daily.

“If you are looking for families to boost consumption then one has to ask oneself whether families will actually spend more or whether they will save most of the money,” Zimmermann said.

The tax cuts, as well as increases in spending because of the recession, will also serve to add to Germany’s huge debt mountain, even if they succeed in sparking growth.

“If Germany wants to reduce its public debt level to 60 percent (of output) by 2020… the economy has to grow by 4.5 percent on average each year,” Unicredit’s Rees said. “It goes without saying that this is a mission impossible.”

Germany’s national debt currently stands at around €1.5 trillion, and growing, with the interest payments alone costing the country tens of billions of euros every year.

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TAXES

Beskæftigelsesfradraget: What is Denmark’s employment allowance?

Denmark's government may soon announce changes to its tax reform plans, which will give all wage earners a bigger employment allowance. What is this and how will it affect foreigners' earnings?

Beskæftigelsesfradraget: What is Denmark's employment allowance?

What is the employment allowance? 

The Beskæftigelsesfradraget (from beskæftigelse, meaning employment, and fradrag, meaning rebate) was brought in by the centre-right Liberal Party back in 2004, the idea being that it would incentivise people to get off welfare and into a job.

Everyone whose employer pays Denmark’s 8 percent AM-bidrag, or arbejdsmarkedsbidrag, automatically receives beskæftigelsesfradraget. Unlike with some of Denmark’s tax rebates, there is no need to apply. The Danish Tax Agency simply exempts the first portion of your earnings from income taxes. 

In 2022, beskæftigelsesfradraget was set at 10.65 percent of income with a maximum rebate of 44,800 kroner. 

How did the government agree to change the employment allowance in its coalition deal? 

In Responsibility for Denmark, the coalition agreement between the Social Democrats, the Liberals and the Moderate Party, the new government said it would set aside 5 billion kroner for tax reforms.

Of this, 4 billion kroner was earmarked for increasing the employment allowance, with a further 0.3 billion going towards increasing an additional employment allowance for single parents.

According to the public broadcaster DR, the expectation was that this would increase the standard employment  allowance to 12.75 percent up to a maximum rebate of 53,600 kroner. 

How might this be further increased, according to Børsen? 

According to a report in the Børsen newspaper, the government now plans to set aside a further 1.75 billion kroner for tax reforms, of which nearly half — about 800 million kroner — will go towards a further increase to the employment allowance. 

The Danish Chamber of Commerce earlier this month released an analysis in which it argued that by raising removing all limits on the rebate for single parents and raising the maximum rebate for everone else by 20,300 kroner, the government could increase the labour supply by 4,850 people, more than double the 1,500 envisaged in the government agreement. 

According to the Børsen, the government estimates that its new extended allowance will increase the labour supply by 5,150 people.  

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