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ANGELA MERKEL

German industrial output jumps 3.7 percent

Roaring auto output pushed German industrial production higher in May by the biggest margin since August 1993, official data showed Wednesday, signalling the country's deep recession might be near an end.

German industrial output jumps 3.7 percent
Nice dress, dude.Photo: DPA

The economy ministry said overall output in Europe’s biggest economy leapt by 3.7 percent in May from the previous month and added: “Industrial production may have passed the trough.”

The outlook was also brighter than in April, when production fell by a revised 2.6 percent, a ministry statement said.

On Tuesday, the ministry reported a May surge of 4.4 percent in industrial orders, a leading indicator of future activity.

A breakdown of the output data showed that manufacturing of capital goods, which includes autos, leapt by 8.3 percent in May on the month, partly thanks to a government cash-for-clunkers scheme that pays drivers €2,500 to scrap an old car for a new one.

But “foreign demand for German cars was (also) a key driver as had already been reflected by yesterday’s new orders data,” UniCredit economist Andreas Rees noted.

Commerzbank’s Ralf Solveen underscored the stronger foreign demand for autos as well and said it “is presumably not just due to the government incentives.”

Juergen Michaels at Citi called a 24.2 percent surge in auto sector output “outstanding.”

On a 12-month basis, overall adjusted industrial output nonetheless fell by 17.9 percent, the data showed, a sign of how much the economy has shrunk in a year.

The monthly rise was nonetheless a second piece of good news from the economy ministry, which said Tuesday that industrial orders had leapt higher in May, suggesting the upward momentum in output could be maintained.

Germany is suffering its worst recession since World War II, and the government expects economic activity to shrink by 6.0 percent this year.

Spurring economic growth was a key topic for leaders of the Group of Eight most industrialised countries as they met in the earthquake-struck Italian town of L’Aquila.

“While there are signs of stabilisation, including recovery in stock markets … the situation remains uncertain and significant risks remain to economic and financial stability,” a G8 statement said.

One obstacle is weak bank lending to the private sector, growth of which in the eurozone hit an all-time low of 1.8 percent in April, according to European Central Bank.

Banks seem to be using hundreds of billions of euros, dollars, pounds and yen churned out by central banks to bolster balance sheets rather than to extend credit to the larger economy.

In Germany, many firms complain of tighter credit, and between January and April, more than 10,000 companies declared insolvency according to official data released Wednesday.

Large and small firms that depend on exports have been slammed by the worldwide slowdown, and chemical giant BASF said Tuesday it would slash 3,700 jobs by 2013.

With unemployment on the rise, a key question is whether the marked easing of recessionary pressures will last.

A breakdown of the German output data showed that construction activity fell by 3.2 percent in May from April, and energy production was off by 3.8 percent.

The surge in domestic auto sales could also screech to a halt once state aid is no longer available.

But with falling business inventories seen to be near their lowest level, economists forecast a general turnaround in the coming months.

“The recession in the industrial sector is bottoming out,” ING economist Carsten Brzeski said.

Rees added that “after the summer break, the odds are rising that the German economy will manage a comeback.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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