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ECONOMY

Industrial orders remain stable for April

German industrial orders, a key indicator in Europe's biggest economy, were stable in April compared with the previous month, the economy ministry said on Monday.

Industrial orders remain stable for April
Photo: DPA

Orders had risen strongly in March, their first rise in six months, and the ministry said the latest reading, a change of exactly zero percent, showed a “noticeable improvement in the medium-term perspective” for German industries.

The March figure was revised slightly higher to a gain of 3.7 percent from a previous estimate of 3.3 percent.

Analysts were divided on what the steady result meant, but most saw the glass half-full as Germany struggles to pull out of its worst post-war slump.

“The unchanged orders reading can definitely be rated as positive news for the industrial sector,” said UniCredit economist Alexander Koch.

The ministry also noted that orders calculated over two months to smooth out exceptional influences had risen for the first time since December 2007.

They gained 2.0 percent in March and April compared with January and February.

A 12-month comparison was less rosy however, with the March-April figure a full 32 percent lower than in the same period one year earlier.

“Given the strong previous drops in demand, industrial production will still face stiff tests in the near term,” the ministry warned.

The country’s export-driven economy has been slammed by the global economic downturn, and the government has forecast a 6.0 percent contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) this year.

Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen looked askance at the industrial orders data on Monday, saying: “The key driver of these rather disappointing numbers was a marked decline in capital goods orders.”

Capital goods are used to produce finished products, such as consumer goods.

“The stagnation of orders argues against a broadbased and swift recovery of industrial production,” which we expect to have fallen by 1.5 percent in April,” Solveen added.

German industrial output figures are due on Tuesday.

“This would suggest that GDP for the second quarter will again turn out negative, though much less so than in the first three months of the year,” when it collapsed by a bigger-than-expected 3.8 percent.

Postbank analyst Thilo Heidrich felt however that “the figure of the day is another sign of German industrial stabilisation.”

Koch noted further that because “companies have cut inventories drastically recently, even a modest pick-up in global demand should be enough to bring the German industrial dynamic into positive territory in the coming months.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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