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ECONOMY

Germany moves to nationalise Hypo Real Estate

Shareholders in the troubled German bank Hypo Real Estate approved late Tuesday a nearly €3-billion capital increase to be subscribed by the state, one of the last steps in total nationalisation by Berlin.

Germany moves to nationalise Hypo Real Estate
Photo: DPA

Amid stormy debate, the almost 74 percent of shareholders represented at an extraordinary general meeting voted for a €2.95-billion ($4.23-billion) hike, allowing the state to obtain 90 percent of the bank’s shares.

Germany already owned 47.3 percent of HRE’s equity following a public offer for shares in May.

The state also represented a simple majority among shareholders at the general assembly, giving it the power to get the motion approved.

Once it effectively owns 90 percent of HRE, Germany can force remaining shareholders to sell their holdings via a “squeeze out” operation.

It will be Germany’s first full bank nationalisation since the republic’s birth in 1949.

The biggest losers will be some small investors and the former dominant HRE shareholder, US investment fund JC Flowers, which had sought to retain its stake in the troubled bank.

Berlin will not be forced to expropriate shareholders however, an option it held but was reluctant to exercise.

HRE, which has become a symbol of the financial crisis in Germany, has already benefitted since October from €102 billion in mostly public loan guarantees.

Earlier on Tuesday, bank boss Axel Wieandt said there was “no alternative” to nationalisation and stressed HRE would have gone bankrupt long ago without state aid.

Wieandt said in addition to the capital increase, HRE would need still more funds and additional state aid.

Germany decided to nationalise HRE via the government’s financial markets stabilisation fund SoFFin following concerns that the bank’s collapse would trigger financial market chaos.

The situation was likened to that faced by US investment bank Lehman Brothers, which went bankrupt in September, a move believed to have taken the global financial crisis to a far more critical level.

HRE is a pivotal part of Germany’s economy. In addition to its real-estate activities, the bank plays a major role in the issuance of “Pfandbriefe,” bonds in which small investors, savings banks and insurance companies have placed large sums.

Berlin nationalised banks during the 1930s Great Depression, a practice that was continued by the World War II Nazi regime.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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