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ECONOMY

German industrial output numbers a reason to hope

Markets welcomed unexpectedly good German industrial output data on Friday after Europe's biggest economy posted a slight rise in trade, signs it was not finished with recession but was starting to see some hope.

German industrial output numbers a reason to hope
Photo: DPA

Industrial output was stable in March from February following months of gloom, though first-quarter output fell by 12 percent from the last quarter of 2008, Economy Ministry data showed.

“It is time to say goodbye to an unprecedented brutal recession in the industrial sector,” UniCredit chief German economist Andreas Rees said, noting the quarter-on-quarter decline was the steepest in German economic history.

He stressed however that it was the third positive set of hard data in two days for one of the world’s leading exporters, along with the trade numbers and industrial orders figures on Thursday.

Industrial production had slumped by 3.4 percent in Febuary from the previous month, and the monthly figure for March was much better than an analyst forecast of a 1.2 percent decline compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.

German exports ticked upwards from February for the first monthly rise since September meanwhile, another sign the country’s massive recession might be easing.

Exports gained 0.7 percent in March from February, ending a five-month run of declines, though they were an impressive 15.8 percent lower than in March 2008.

Imports rose by 0.8 percent from February and the combination left Germany’s trade surplus at €11.3 billion ($15.1 billion), down from €16.8 billion a year earlier, the National Statistics Office (Destatis) said.

That was better than an average analyst forecast of €8.7 billion however.

A breakdown of the production figures showed two bright spots.

Output of capital goods, those used to produce finished products and a German specialty, rose by a strong 2.5 percent, the first monthly rise since September.

And construction activity soared by 7.6 percent, making up in part an earlier slump owing to better weather conditions.

Industrial output in general was boosted by an exceptional effect however, Germany’s car scrapping premium which has given auto sales a huge boost.

“Recent positive impulses came from the car industry that has benefitted from economic stimulus measures at home and abroad,” the ministry acknowledged.

But Capital Economics economist Jennifer McKeown said “the latest data provide some hope that the slump in the vital German external and industrial sectors has begun to ease.”

Postbank economist Thilo Heidrich added: “Against the background of another drop we and the market had expected, this is a pleasing result.”

The output and trade figures completed a trifecta of positive releases, following Thursday’s increase in industrial orders.

They gained 3.3 percent in March from February, the first increase in six months, with foreign orders rising by an impressive 5.6 percent.

After two catastrophic quarters, the German economy is beginning to show faint signs of life.

Berlin is bracing for a massive six-percent drop in gross domestic product (GDP) this year, but the government expects growth to resume in 2010.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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