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ECONOMY

Opel could shut factories to survive

The head of troubled German car manufacturer Opel raised the possibility of closing plants in Germany to rescue the group in an interview to be published on Monday.

Opel could shut factories to survive
Photo: DPA

“If one thinks purely in terms of operating costs, and not in terms of individual jobs, it would of course be sensible,” Hans Demant told the weekly magazine Wirtschaftswoche.

“We want to do our utmost to avoid closures. Whether we will manage it remains to be seen,” he added.

For the moment measures to cut certain departments and jobs and reduce the wage bill were being envisaged, Demant said, adding, “We are aware that these are painful.”

Der Spiegel magazine reported earlier this month that Opel’s management planned to shut three facilities in Europe – two in Germany and one in Belgium – and sack 11,000 people, a fifth of its workforce.

The aim is to save some $1.2 billion dollars (€949 million) in staff costs, the magazine wrote. An alternative proposal would be to cut only 3,500 jobs but reduce wages across the board, it added.

Meanwhile the daily Bild on Saturday quoted the head of the works committee, Klaus Franz, saying that Opel employees were envisaging a joint operation with the group’s 2,000 concessionaires to buy 25 percent of the company.

They would be prepared to give up some of their wages to fund the project, he added.

Demant said bankruptcy was “not an option” for Opel, which was engaged in “very constructive discussions” with the government to obtain state aid amounting to €3.3 billion.

He said it was not a question of directly injecting cash into Opel but providing limited guarantees under a plan presented in late February that also foresees the German car maker gaining a large degree of autonomy from GM.

Labour Minister Olaf Scholz told the weekly Bild am Sonntag in an interview to be published on Sunday that “letting Opel die would be more than a mistake, it would be an unacceptable setback for the government.”

The cost would be billions of euros, the Social Democrat said, calling on Christian Democrat Chancellor Angela Merkel to promise Opel workers that they could count on the cross-party government.

Economy Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said on Tuesday that GM was prepared to scale down its stake in Opel to a minority shareholding.

He said he had also sought guarantees from the US government that any German public aid for Opel would not be transferred to boost GM.

After meeting his US counterpart, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Guttenberg told reporters that “the glimmer of hope for Opel was becoming a bit brighter.”

But despite “considerable progress” in the talks, many unresolved issues remained, he said.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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