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ECONOMY

VW races to overtake GM and Toyota

Carmaker Volkswagen is hoping record profits will help it overtake loss-stricken US giant General Motors and Japan's Toyota within nine years, its management revealed on Thursday.

VW races to overtake GM and Toyota
Photo: DPA

The German giant, the biggest auto maker in Europe, is putting its foot down in the fast lane with the intention of becoming the biggest auto group in the world by 2018. The gap is big, but profits are fuelling its pursuit.

“I see Volkswagen in pole position … after the crisis,” chief executive Martin Winterkorn told a press conference in Wolfsburg on Thursday. “We are staying in the fast lane and the fuel tank is well topped up.”

Volkswagen (VW) is the third-biggest auto manufacturer in the world, selling 6.3 million vehicles last year. GM and Toyota each sold rather more than eight million. But GM is tottering close to bankruptcy despite huge US state aid, and Toyota expects to run up huge losses for its 2008-2009 year to the end of March.

VW, by contrast, made a record net profit of €4.7 billion ($6.0 billion) in 2008, a disastrous year for leading auto groups in general, and it expects to make a an operating profit this year, albeit less than last year, finance director Hans Dieter Potsch said.

Winterkorn warned, however, that business conditions this year would be “extremely difficult” and that sales would probably fall by about 10 percent. The group might even report a loss for the first quarter. Potsch said that the latest data pointed in that direction since sales for January and February had fallen by 15 percent from the equivalent figure last year to 809,200 vehicles.

However, this was a smaller fall than that experienced by all sales by auto makers throughout the world which had contracted by 23 percent, VW said, lauding the performance of its small, and low-pollution cars, and the range of its models sold also under the brands of Skoda, Audi, Seat and Scania.

Even the involvement of the regional state of Lower-Saxony with an interest of 20 percent, which has been the subject of controversy for being outdated, is no longer criticised at a time when many governments are rushing to shore up stricken industries, including vehicle makers.

Winterkorn said that “many competitors envy us” because of our long-term shareholders in the form of the regional state and the auto maker Porsche,which holds more than 50 percent of the equity. However, this did not discourage the group from seeking state guarantees of up to €2.0 billion ($2.56 billion) from the federal government in Berlin for its VW bank.

And it helps to explain why VW was cautious on Thursday towards the prickly case of Opel, the German and European arm of GM, which is a direct competitor of VW but is looking for German state help to survive.

Potsch observed: “If there has to be aid, then (it should be) on a fair basis.” Opel had to prove that it could be viable, he said. Winterkorn said that he expected to see a concentration in the global auto industry eventually.

He forecast that one manufacturer would survive in Japan, one in China, “two or three in Europe” and one in the United States. And he was confident that Volkswagen would still be there in the fast lane, among the “winners” in the new “champions’ league.”

Meanwhile, the annual report published on Thursday showed that Winterkorn himself is in the fast lane: his total remuneration more than doubled last year to €12.7 million, owing largely to the exercise of options to buy shares. In 2007, he earned €5.1 million.

Remuneration for the five members of the board was rather more than €45 million from €16 million in 2007. The stock options, granted at an advantageous price as a way of rewarding executives if success drives up the value of the business, have risen sharply.

At one point toward the end of last year, Volkswagen shares rose above € 1,000 per share, owing to heavy speculative trading when Porsche was manoeuvring to gain control of the group. The closing price of VW shares on Wednesday was above €210.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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