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FINANCIAL CRISIS

Financial crisis to ‘peter out’ in 2009: Riksbank

Sweden's economy is set to rediscover its growth trend in 2010 as the ongoing financial crisis tails off in 2009, according to a new prognosis from the country's central bank.

Financial crisis to 'peter out' in 2009: Riksbank

In a statement released on Friday, the Riksbank’s deputy governor Barbro Wickman-Parak said inflation would continue to drop rapidly over the coming year.

“A large part of the explanation comprises falling energy prices and falling interest expenditure; that is factors that are favourable to growth,” she said, adding that a temporary fall in the inflation rate “should not be confused with a prolonged process with falling prices that affects long-term inflation expectations.”

Wickman-Parak also played down comparisons with the 1930s, arguing that the threat of “deflation” should not be exaggerated.

“Our forecasts, and those of most other experts, indicate that growth will recover in 2010 and that inflation will then increase,” she said.

The Riksbank would continue to analyze the situation and discuss the need for regulatory changes, she said, but the worst of the current crisis was expected to pass in the year ahead.

“We expect the financial crisis to peter out during the course of the year that has just begun,” said Wickman-Parak.

ECONOMY

Riksbank deputy ‘open to reconsidering raising rates in April’

Martin Flodén, the deputy governor of Sweden's Riksbank, has questioned whether the central bank needs to bring in further rate rises in April, following bank runs on two niche banks in the US and a crisis of confidence at Credit Suisse.

Riksbank deputy 'open to reconsidering raising rates in April'

Uncertainty in the financial market following bank runs in the US and a crisis at Swiss bank Credit Suisse could have changed the playing field, he told TT in an interview. 

“It affects which level the key interest rates need to be in order to have a contractive effect,” he said, referring to the recent days of financial market turbulence. “We can’t just look at key interest rates by themselves. It’s the key interest rate in combination with all of these developments which determines how tight financial policy will be.”

He said it was not yet obvious what decision should be taken. 

“It’s clear that monetary policy needs to stay tight, but what level of interest is that? We need to assess all of the current developments there.” 

‘Could go in different directions’

In theory, there could be such a serious financial crisis, with such a severe effect on lending and banks’ financing costs, that the central bank would be forced to adopt supportive measures, even lowering the key rate.

Flodén doesn’t think Sweden is in that situation, although he thinks there’s a possibility it could happen.

“It’s not something I can see happening right now, at least, although this could go in different directions.” 

He added that he doesn’t see any reason for any “special concern”, toning down the risk that a crisis for two smaller niche banks in the US and at Credit Suisse could affect the Swedish financial system.

“Of course, it could lead to some stress, but there aren’t actually any particular signs in Sweden, which are worrying me,” he said. 

Flodén is one of six members of the Riksbank executive board, led by Riksbank chief Erik Thedéen, responsible for making a decision on whether interest rates will go up again at the end of April.

The Riksbank has indicated that a rate hike of between 0.25 and 0.5 percent from the current 3 percent rate could be necessary.

Flodén described the most recent inflation statistics for February, where inflation unexpectedly rose to 12 percent, as “not good at all”. So-called KPIF inflation, where the effect of mortgage rates is removed, rose from 9.3 percent to 8.7 percent in January. The Riksbank’s goal is 2 percent.

“It’s clear that inflation is still far too high and that monetary policy needs to be focussed on combatting inflation,” he said, adding that inflation statistics for March will be released before the central bank is due to make a decision on whether to raise rates or not in April.

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