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ECONOMY

Commerzbank shares slammed by government bailout

German markets emerged from shell-shock Friday following news the state will take a 25 percent stake in the second biggest bank, Commerzbank, so it can manage a costly takeover of the troubled Dresdner Bank.

Commerzbank shares slammed by government bailout
Photo: DPA

Commerzbank shares posted heavy losses on the Frankfurt stock market, with many analysts saying existing shareholders would be left holding the bag after the total amount of a state bail-out climbed to €18.2 billion ($24.9 billion).

That is more than 5.5 times the bank’s current free-floating market capitalisation of €3.26 billion, but as Baader Bank stock strategist Robert Halver told AFP: “There is no other alternative. The state is playing the role of mid-wife for a painful birth.”

Berlin said Thursday it would inject €10 billion into Commerzbank on top of an €8.2-billion cash injection in December to strengthen the bank as it buys Dresdner Bank from insurance group Allianz for an estimated €5.1 billion. The government also wants Commerzbank to continue extending crucial credit to German companies.

Both Dresdner and Commerzbank have suffered heavy losses stemming from the international financial crisis, but the state’s latest massive injection raised questions about what problems might lie ahead for the combined bank, which aims to be a counterweight to the biggest German bank, Deutsche Bank.

“There appear to be several billion euros of charges in the fourth quarter” for Commerzbank and Dresdner Bank combined, Sal Oppenheim stock analyst Carsten Werle told AFP.

But Commerzbank appeared determined to wrap up its takeover of Dresdner Bank this month and needed the extra cash to ensure the deal goes smoothly. Most of the government’s investment was in the form of a “silent participation” that does not give it voting rights, though it was also buying 295 million new shares that would take its holding to 25 percent plus one share, effectively a blocking minority.

A Finance Ministry spokesman told AFP Friday that “it was expected to send two representatives to Commerzbank’s supervisory board” to “assume our responsibility in how taxpayer’s money is used.” But “the state does not intend to intervene in the bank’s operational decisions,” he stressed.

History thus repeated itself in part for the bank, which was nationalised by the German government in 1932 for five years, noted LBBW stock strategist Antje Laschewski.

“This memory creates a very negative feeling on the markets,” she said.

In addition, as the state becomes Commerzbank’s biggest shareholder, it will dilute current shareholders’ earning per share by 20 percent, Werle pointed out.

Holders of Commerzbank stock will also see it forced to reimburse “an annual pre-tax charge of €1.5 billion for the silent participations,” the analyst noted, because the European Commission set the interest rate on Berlin’s cash injection in December at 9.0 percent. In 2007, the bank’s best year ever, it posted a net profit of €1.9 billion.

After the news was announced on Thursday, Commerzbank shares hit an all-time low €4.47 before rebounding to close with a loss of 13 percent. On Friday, they showed a further loss of 7.43 percent to €4.86 in mid-day trading, while the DAX index of leading shares was essentially flat overall.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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