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ECONOMY

Hypo Real Estate posts €3.1 billion Q3 loss

German property lender Hypo Real Estate (HRE) posted on Wednesday a third-quarter net loss of €3.1 billion ($3.89 billion) and said it expected more bad news by the end of the year.

The loss was much worse than expected by analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires, who had forecast a loss of €2.2 billion.

It “is largely attributable to the complete write-off of approximately €2.5 billion of goodwill and other intangible assets recognised at Hypo Real Estate Holding that have arisen as a result of the first-time consolidation of Depfa,” a German-Irish subsidiary, an HRE statement said.

Depfa was slammed when the US investment bank Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy in mid September.

The remaining €600 million in losses “were due to various factors, including the consequences of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the situation in Iceland, a further impairment relating to the investment in Babcock & Brown and other losses in value relating to the CDO holdings of Hypo Real Estate,” the statement added.

CDOs, or collateralised debt obligations are often risky securities built from a portfolio of fixed-income assets, including high-risk, or subprime US mortgages on which borrowers have defaulted in large numbers.

The real estate specialist was caught in a liquidity squeeze which worsened after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, and in late October it obtained €15 billion in state loan guarantees under a rescue plan for the banking sector.

It had already benefited from a tailor-made rescue package worked out by the government, the German central bank and private banks worth €50 billion, to which it should have access on Thursday.

“Hypo Real Estate is providing collateral of €60 billion (comprising loans and securities) to secure the liquidity facility,” it said.

Meanwhile, it has begun to restructure its activities, but the bank warned that looking ahead, “the market environment remains difficult.”

It said that “the costs of the €50-billion liquidity facility and the restructuring will also impact on results for 2009.” It will also face costs “in conjunction with the necessary restructuring and repositioning of the group.” The property lender is to present full provisional results on November 17.

HRE was swamped by debts incurred by Depfa, which it bought in October 2007, after the international financial crisis emerged with the collapse of the US market for subprime mortgages. Depfa specialises in the financing of public works projects.

On Monday, a Munich prosecutor told AFP that an investigation had been launched into problems at HRE, accused of misleading shareholders as it was hit by the international financial crisis. The head of HRE Georg Funke resigned on October 7.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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