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ECONOMY

ECB joins concerted worldwide rate cuts

The European Central Bank cut its main lending rate by half a percentage point to 3.75 percent on Wednesday in a concerted effort with the world's leading monetary authorities to stem the growing global financial crisis.

ECB joins concerted worldwide rate cuts
ECB President Trichet cuts rates un petit peu. Photo: DPA

The decision was taken in coordination with central banks in Britain, Canada Sweden, Switzerland and the United States, the ECB said in a statement.

The ECB, which sets monetary policy for 15 EU members including Germany, also said that “the Bank of Japan expresses its strong support of these policy actions” although Tokyo did not take part in the joint action which followed unprecedented moves in Washington and London to battle the crisis.

Noting that “inflationary pressures have started to moderate in a number of countries, partly reflecting a marked decline in energy and other commodity prices,” the ECB said it had also reduced its other two key rates by the same amount.

The ECB’s marginal lending rate was cut to 4.75 percent and the interest rate on the ECB’s deposit facility fell to 2.75 percent. These are rates at which commercial banks can borrow from, and place money on deposit with the central bank, respectively.

“Throughout the current financial crisis, central banks have engaged in continuous close consultation and have cooperated in unprecedented joint actions such as the provision of liquidity to reduce strains in financial markets,” the ECB statement said.

Central banks have pumped massive amounts of cash into interbank money markets to ensure that the critical networks did not collapse, but their efforts have met with little success as the credit crunch continues.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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