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ANGELA MERKEL

Merkel: Germany ‘strong’ enough to cope with financial crisis

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday that the long-term consequences of the global financial crisis were uncertain but that she was confident the "strong" German economy would survive.

Merkel: Germany 'strong' enough to cope with financial crisis
Photo: DPA

In a keenly awaited speech to parliament, Merkel also singled out the United States for blame in the crisis and criticized European Union partner Ireland for its “unacceptable” unilateral move to protect Irish banks.

“The long-term consequences of the financial crisis are today impossible to foresee, as are the effects on our growth and our country,” Merkel said. “But I say too, also in this difficult hour, that Germany is strong … and I am firmly convinced that this will help us to cope with the consequences of the financial crisis, even if it will not be easy,” she told lawmakers.

She said that her government – an uneasy coalition of her conservative Christian Democrats with the centre-left Social Democrats – would stick to its reform policies despite the crisis, including its aim to balance the federal budget by 2011.

The speech came two days after Merkel said that all savings and current accounts in German banks would be guaranteed as the government cobbled together a €50-billion ($68-billion) rescue of the country’s fourth biggest bank, Hypo Real Estate (HRE).

HRE was the latest financial group to be rescued in Europe since the year-old credit crunch became a full-blown global crisis last month with the collapse of Wall Street titan Lehman Brothers. But Merkel hit out at a similar guarantee issued last week by the Irish government that would cover all on personal and corporate bank deposits at its six major banks.

“The Irish way is not the right way,” Merkel said. “Protecting without coordination one’s own banks, without including other international institutions that paid taxes in Ireland for years, and thereby of course hurting competition, is in my opinion unacceptable.”

The comments came as European finance ministers agreed in Luxembourg on Tuesday to increase such minimum bank deposit guarantees in Europe to €50,000 ($67,500) from €20,000 currently.

Merkel, in power since 2005, also hit out at what she called the “irresponsible” granting of mortgages to people in the United States with shaky credit histories. “The risks from these loans were sold on, newly packaged, strewn around worldwide and so became the seed of the worldwide financial crisis,” she said.

Merkel also reiterated her opposition to a US-style bailout fund contributed to by all 27 European Union states, as discussed at a meeting with the leaders of France, Italy and Britain at a summit in Paris at the weekend.

“In Germany’s point of view what is not … acceptable is that all 27 member states create a shield and all pay into a fund and then with 27 states to perform the necessary crisis management in member states,” Merkel said. “I do not believe that this is compatible with fast decision-making and therefore we reject this.”

She said that each country should foot the cost of bailouts of its banks but that there should be coordination between EU countries on the financial crisis.

HRE said on Tuesday that its chief executive Georg Funke has resigned. The bank’s management had come under fierce attack from top officials for initially not giving an accurate picture of its finances. Funke is being replaced by Axel Wieandt, who is joining from Deutsche Bank.

Merkel called on firms to punish similar management slip-ups more harshly, saying that mechanisms already existed for doing so but they were not applied enough, “in order to make managers live up to their responsibilities.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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