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ECONOMY

Hypo Real Estate gets last-minute rescue

The German mortgage bank Hypo Real Estate (HRE) was granted a last-minute "multi-billion euro" credit line from a consortium of German banks that allowed it to avoid declaring bankruptcy, it said Monday.

Hypo Real Estate gets last-minute rescue
Photo: DPA

A consortium has provided the troubled real estate lender “a major new credit facility which is designed to shield the company from the impact of the current malfunctioning of the international money markets,” a statement said. The unspecified amount was “sufficient to cover the group’s funding needs well into the future,” it added.

But hours later, the German government announced it had joined the consortium of banks. Berlin has agreed to guarantee a €35-billion ($50-billion) credit line being provided by the private banks after emergency talks over the weekend, government spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm said.

“With the decision of the government to cover risks taken by the private banks for the rescue of Hypo Real Estate a spreading of the financial crisis to Germany was prevented,” Wilhelm said following crisis talks that carried on late into the early hours of Monday morning. “In doing this the government is also protecting all the other financial market participants from damages that without the state intervention would have endangered or could have endangered the financial system as a whole.”

“Hypo Real Estate has no private client business, but nevertheless the government by covering the system is meeting its responsibilities to protect the private savings of many people in Germany,” he said.

The German central bank and the stock market watchdog BaFin said separately that they “felt that Hypo Real Estate’s viability was thus guaranteed.” The lender had launched talks with unidentified German banks “in response to the extremely challenging conditions on the international money markets following the Lehman collapse and other market disruptions,” HRE said inreference to the bankrupt US investment bank Lehman Brothers.

But HRE shares plunged by more than 55 percent in opening trades on Monday after it had been granted the credit line. The bank’s stock shed 55.45 percent to €6.01, while the Dax index of leading shares had opened with a loss of 0.88 percent.

Banks that normally borrow money on interbank markets have seen that source dry up since the US subprime mortgage crisis erupted more than a year ago, and institutions that depended on regular refinancing of their debts have run into crisis.

The daily Financial Times Deutschland reported in its Monday edition that private German banks had been trying “feverishly” to find a way to rescue the institution, hit hard by the US subprime loan crisis that began in August 2007. The report said the bank, which is listed among Germany’s 30 blue chip Dax index companies, had fallen victim to speculation by its German-Irish unit Depfa.

The paper said Depfa had pursued long-term projects with heavy loans and generally ensured refinancing only at the last minute, which due to the current global credit crunch was no longer possible.

HRE would have to pick up the tab for the refinancing, estimated to be in the double-digit billions of euros range, according to the report. “It is highly unlikely at the present time that HRE will be able to come up with that amount,” the paper wrote ahead of the reported rescue package.

HRE operates in three sectors: commercial real estate; public sector and infrastructure finance; and capital markets and asset management.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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