SHARE
COPY LINK
PORTNOY'S STAMMTISCH

ECONOMY

How I learned to stop worrying and love my Sparbuch

In the latest dispatch of Portnoy’s Stammtisch, The Local’s column about life in Germany, Portnoy muses on how the current global financial crisis has brought Germany’s leftist populist Oskar Lafontaine and America’s cowboy capitalist George W. Bush together.

How I learned to stop worrying and love my Sparbuch
Portnoy risks the wrath of Oskar! Photo: DPA

You ever heard of Oskar Lafontaine? He’s this sort of cartoonishly outraged blowhard, whose wacky economic ideas would be entertaining if he weren’t the head of Germany’s fastest-growing political party. His posse, the Left party, has a platform as unimaginative and populist as its title.

In this period of economic chaos that has brought the global capitalist order crashing down around us, wannabe commie Oskar thought it appropriate to point his demagoguery at German industrial matriarch Maria-Elizabeth Schaeffler. Her family’s company this summer paid about €10 billion for yet another German industrial empire, a tyre maker named Continental. Frau Schaeffler, Oskar said, could never have earned €10 billion on her own – as if to say €10 billion is more than any human could ever need.

Fair enough, you have to think. Oschi (as I like to call him) has a point. Nobody really does need that much cash.

But then he played ideological hairstylist to quickly fashion something that looked like a philosophical mullet – hip and retro, maybe, but still ugly: he suggested the German government take away Schaeffler’s company and her money. Make it a state-owned company. Nationalize it à la Hugo Chavez. Distribute the wealth. Then he added some brassy highlights about communists and East Germany and, well, Oskar gets boring pretty quick – which is why you may have never heard of him.

Naturally, everyone who isn’t in Oschi’s party chuckled because the world’s financial markets are crumbling and we need something to laugh about. But apparently the laugh is on us taxpayers, because guess what George W. Bush has come up with to solve this financial mess?

The commander in chief of cowboy capitalism has decided to make the world’s largest insurer a state-owned company. Apparently, it’s not just great minds that think alike.

But while dudes like Oschi get to talk about how nice the world would be without rich people, and dudes like George prove his point, the rest of us get to sit around wondering where this financial fuss will leave us normal folk in Germany. As the occasional financial hack and someone who has lived through a handful of recessions, I can say with confidence: pretty much where we are today.

Complain all you want about the fiscally conservative Germans and their heavy-handed regulations, but they’re exactly what’re going to save middle class expats such as myself during what is almost certainly already a recession. It’s not that the country hasn’t been affected by this morass of global greed – two of the government’s own mid-sized banks had to be saved from bankruptcy – but that was probably the worst for this economy.

Why?

Because while most Americans think financial planning means moving hefty credit card balances from their Visa to their MasterCard, Germans see opening a savings account as an advanced form of investment. While the Brits and Americans begin looking for a buyer for their house the second they close, Germans see property purchases as a risky, almost speculative bet. Homeownership here is the kind of thing all your good friends warn you away from (I speak from experience). Why buy when you can rent?

All of this fear has kept the majority of German banking accounts at financial institutions like Sparkasse that are not only owned to varying degrees by the government, but also tightly controlled – Angie’s boys won’t let them do much with that cash but tuck it under the mattress. The one percent or two percent that spills over the side is returned as interest. To a German, that’s an investment yield of a lifetime.

On top of that, most of Germany’s businesses don’t make big headlines, they make big factories. Spinning machines, paper mills and hydraulic presses. They’re owned by families, not unlike Ms Schaeffler’s, that aren’t very interested in investors or politicians, of either the Lafontaine or Bush ilk. Collectively, they’re known as the Mittelstand, mid-sized companies that have made Germany the world’s export champion. They like to keep their companies and their wealth in the family, if you will.

Sure, expats such as myself are a little more exposed to this current debacle since we likely have economic links outside Germany. But to keep it all in perspective, I just like to refer to the last time rich people caused economic mayhem by getting greedy – the dotcom bubble. What was your life like during that recession? Me? I got laid off and my equally unemployed girlfriend ended up pregnant. Life was pretty good.

So until Lafontaine becomes chancellor and starts nationalizing Germany’s Mittelstand I’m not going to sweat the financial catastrophes keeping the fat cats on Wall Street up at night.

Since a good German Stammtisch is a place where pub regulars come to talk over the issues of the day, Portnoy welcomes a lively conversation in our Discuss section.

For members

ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

SHOW COMMENTS