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Sweden holds its breath ahead of Riksbank rate decision

Sweden’s market analysts and savers are anxious to learn the outcome of Wednesday’s Riksbank meeting, during which the bank’s governors will decide whether or not to raise interest rates for the third time this year.

Published: 3 September 2008 16:18 CEST

The outcome of the meeting will be published on Thursday.

Economists said the decision was almost too close to call as recent data has shown the economy slowing faster than the central bank expected.

“We think it is really fifty-fifty, it’s a close call,” said Anna Raman, economist at Handelsbanken.

She said that with inflation at 4.4 percent in July, a rate hike was the more likely outcome, “but we wouldn’t be surprised if they stay on hold”.

Whether or not the central bank raises rates this week, it will outline a milder picture for the path of interest rates ahead than it gave in July, when it last tightened policy.

Then the Riksbank said it saw rates rising to 5.0 percent this year and not falling until the third quarter of 2009.

Henrik Mitelman, chief fixed income strategist at SEB, said the market was pricing in a roughly 50 percent chance of a rate hike on Thursday, a very small chance of a cut in December and a 50 percent likelihood of looser monetary policy already in February next year.

Although the Riksbank has outlined two more hikes this year, it is in a bind.

Headline inflation is well above its 2 percent target and above its 3 percent tolerance ceiling, pushed up mainly by higher energy, food and higher interest costs.

But after years of strong growth, the economy is shifting down gears.

Inflation expectations — a key focus for the Riksbank — are falling.

Sweden turned in its worst performance in seven years in the second quarter, registering no growth at all after a meagre 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2008.

“We have had such weak indicators lately … GDP … retail sales, you name it, it’s really weak,” said Raman at Handelsbanken.

This week Sweden’s purchasing managers’ index, was below 50 points — the nominal line between a growing and a shrinking economy — for only the second month since 2003.

Sub-indices in the PMI figures showed falling production, employment and orders.

Economists believe the worsening economic outlook will lead the central bank to take a milder view of where rates are heading than it outlined in July.

Even back then, board members Lars Nyberg, Irma Rosenberg and Barbro Wickman-Parak wanted a lower rate path, believing slowing economic growth would relieve pressure on prices.

Governor Stefan Ingves used his casting vote against them.

Knut Hallberg, economist at Swedbank, said that the Riksbank would probably raise rates this week, but indicated that the tightening cycle had now ended.

“The rate path will be roughly the same (as in July), but it will peak at 4.75 percent,” he said.

Despite this, he said Swedbank expected rates to start falling in spring next year.

Fourteen of 24 economists polled by Reuters last week believed the Riksbank will tighten monetary policy this week.

Only one saw rates higher than 4.75 percent at the end of the year. Two saw rates falling to 4.25 percent and ten analysts saw rates at 4.50 percent for the rest of the year

ECONOMY

Riksbank deputy ‘open to reconsidering raising rates in April’

Martin Flodén, the deputy governor of Sweden's Riksbank, has questioned whether the central bank needs to bring in further rate rises in April, following bank runs on two niche banks in the US and a crisis of confidence at Credit Suisse.

Published: 16 March 2023 16:20 CET
Riksbank deputy 'open to reconsidering raising rates in April'

Uncertainty in the financial market following bank runs in the US and a crisis at Swiss bank Credit Suisse could have changed the playing field, he told TT in an interview. 

“It affects which level the key interest rates need to be in order to have a contractive effect,” he said, referring to the recent days of financial market turbulence. “We can’t just look at key interest rates by themselves. It’s the key interest rate in combination with all of these developments which determines how tight financial policy will be.”

He said it was not yet obvious what decision should be taken. 

“It’s clear that monetary policy needs to stay tight, but what level of interest is that? We need to assess all of the current developments there.” 

‘Could go in different directions’

In theory, there could be such a serious financial crisis, with such a severe effect on lending and banks’ financing costs, that the central bank would be forced to adopt supportive measures, even lowering the key rate.

Flodén doesn’t think Sweden is in that situation, although he thinks there’s a possibility it could happen.

“It’s not something I can see happening right now, at least, although this could go in different directions.” 

He added that he doesn’t see any reason for any “special concern”, toning down the risk that a crisis for two smaller niche banks in the US and at Credit Suisse could affect the Swedish financial system.

“Of course, it could lead to some stress, but there aren’t actually any particular signs in Sweden, which are worrying me,” he said. 

Flodén is one of six members of the Riksbank executive board, led by Riksbank chief Erik Thedéen, responsible for making a decision on whether interest rates will go up again at the end of April.

The Riksbank has indicated that a rate hike of between 0.25 and 0.5 percent from the current 3 percent rate could be necessary.

Flodén described the most recent inflation statistics for February, where inflation unexpectedly rose to 12 percent, as “not good at all”. So-called KPIF inflation, where the effect of mortgage rates is removed, rose from 9.3 percent to 8.7 percent in January. The Riksbank’s goal is 2 percent.

“It’s clear that inflation is still far too high and that monetary policy needs to be focussed on combatting inflation,” he said, adding that inflation statistics for March will be released before the central bank is due to make a decision on whether to raise rates or not in April.

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