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ECONOMY

ECB sees euro-zone credit squeeze easing

A squeeze on lending to home buyers and businesses that followed the US subprime crisis has shown slight signs of easing in the last three months, the European Central Bank said on Friday.

ECB sees euro-zone credit squeeze easing
Does Trichet see beyond the crunch? Photo: DPA

But demand for lending has also fallen and banks are still reluctant to extend credit because they think the economic climate will darken further, analysts pointed out.

The ECB’s July survey of more than 100 eurozone banks found “somewhat lower net tightening of credit standards” for businesses and for home purchases than in the first quarter of the year, it said. But the trend was still orientated towards tighter credit standards, while demand had weakened as a result of fewer corporate takeovers, slumping housing markets and falling consumer confidence, the ECB said.

“Banks are concerned with the state of the economy, that’s clearly the number one factor behind the tightening of credit standards,” Bank of America economist Gilles Moec told AFP. “They dont want to engage in too much lending because they are afraid of seeing default rates increase.”

Conditions for consumer credit had in fact become slightly tighter, the ECB said. Banks said credit standards were set to tighten further for businesses, but remain unchanged for households.

In terms of demand, banks noted a drop by both businesses and households, in the former’s case because of fewer mergers and acquisitions, less corporate restructuring and a trend towards internal financing.

A fall in demand for fixed investment loans “doesn’t bode well for the investment outlook given that this sub-index has always proven to be a good leading indicator of capital expenditure,” noted UniCredit Markets chief economist Aurelio Maccario.

Households, meanwhile, were seeking fewer loans because housing markets were under pressure and owing to deteriorating consumer confidence. The ECB questions senior loan officers at 112 representative banks to get a feel for lending conditions every four months, and has been providing money markets with plenty of cash to ensure a continued flow of credit on which business depends.

But Moec also pointed to other statistics that have shown increased bank lending until recently, and said: “What has really been striking me since last summer is the big difference in what they say they are doing and what they seem to be actually doing.”

He suggested that commercial banks could be demonstrating “a bit of strategic behaviour” aimed at getting the ECB to lower its main lending rate. To begin with, banks might seek to reassure the ECB “that credit standards are being tightened in the current circumstances,” he said.

In addition, “the banks want the ECB to cut rates. The more they are gloomy in the survey, the more it may have a bearing on the ECB’s reaction.”

ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet told a press conference on Thursday after the bank kept its main lending rate at 4.25 percent that “we have (seen) a level of loans to the private sector which is still quite dynamic.” And he added that while loan signals were clear in certain domaines, “in others they are complex,” including those regarding non-financial businesses.

Citi economist Jürgen Michels told AFP it just took time for banks’ decisions to show up in economic activity. And because the situation was very different depending on which euro-zone country you were in, German consumers might not have much to worry about, but “in countries like Spain it will get really difficult to get a new loan.”

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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