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TRADE

German trade surplus surges in June

Germany's trade surplus surged in June, data released on Thursday showed, offering some relief after a bleak series of figures pointing to a severe economic slowdown.

German trade surplus surges in June
Photo: DPA

The trade surplus grew to €19.7 billion ($30.4 billions), from a revised €14.3 billion in May, the federal statistics office Destatis said in a statement.

Germany’s current account, the widest measure of trade and financial transactions with other countries, showed a surplus of €18.5 billion, more than double the May level of €7.7 billion, Destatis said.

Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a trade surplus of €15.0 billion and a current account surplus of €12.0 billion. German exports jumped by an unadjusted 7.9 percent in June from the same month a year earlier, while imports increased by 5.3 percent. When corrected for seasonal and other calendar effects, exports were up by 4.2 percent to €85.9 billion, while imports had slipped by 0.1 percent to €67.8 billion.

The figures were good news following a string of numbers that had indicated the German economy was slumping heavily after initially appearing to have withstood a global slowdown.

On Wednesday, data showed that industrial orders had fallen in June for a record seventh month in a row, suggesting that trade figures in the coming months were likely to show weaker exports, the main engine of economic growth. A report in the Sueddeutsche Zeitung on Tuesday quoted government experts as saying that in the second quarter of 2008, the German economy had contracted by around 1.0 percent. Official figures on the second quarter will be published on August 14.

UniCredit economist Andreas Rees sounded a cautious note, however, saying that although exports in June rose at the strongest pace in nearly two years, there was “no reason to celebrate.”

“Looking at the medium-term trend, the outlook for exports is really bleak,” he said.

In June 2007 new orders from other members of the eurozone – the most important marker for German firms – rose by almost 37 percent. But one year later, they nosedived by 25 percent, Rees said.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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