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Can Germany’s Obamania last?

Germany might be feverishly awaiting Barack Obama’s visit to Berlin on Thursday, but the US presidential candidate will have a tough time keeping the country’s affections if he’s elected this November, writes The Local’s Marc Young.

Can Germany’s Obamania last?
Photo: DPA

Is it an inappropriate campaign stop on foreign soil, or simply a sign that the challenges facing America these days are of a global nature?

Regardless of your take on the matter, Barack Obama’s visit to Berlin this week has certainly kicked up a ruckus on both sides of the Atlantic.

Whereas some antagonistic US pundits have vocally tried to tell the Illinois senator that presidential candidates traditionally have left politics at America’s shores, a few rankled German commentators and politicians have accused him of trying to hijack Germany’s most potent national symbols for his own political gain.

After German Chancellor Angela Merkel apparently signalled her disapproval of an appearance in front of the Brandenburg Gate for what she deemed an overseas campaign rally, Obama’s team quickly settled on the nearby Victory Column located at the heart of Berlin’s central Tiergarten park.

There will be no iconic backdrop of the landmark associated with the peaceful revolution leading to German reunification – Obama’s campaign team now has to be content with TV images showing a monument to Prussian military victories in the 19th century.

Adored by thousands

But when the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee arrives in the German capital on Thursday he’ll still be assured a rapturous welcome by a country eager to start a new chapter in transatlantic relations. His scheduled “major” foreign policy speech – likely to be given to an adoring audience of thousands – is already being compared in Germany to the famous Berlin addresses of John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan even though he hasn’t yet uttered a word.

Of course, much of Obama’s appeal to Germans simply lies in him not being George W. Bush. The public here has for years so loathed the current man in the White House that even Obama’s elderly Republican challenger John McCain looks fresh and new. But for most Germans it’s Obama who holds the promise of a cleaner break with the Bush administration’s most-disliked policies.

Bush’s decision to go to war in Iraq, his perceived backwardness on global warming and preference for seemingly arrogant unilateral action over the past eight years has left America’s reputation in tatters in Germany. And while that might have been traumatic for the Americans living in the country, it’s been at least as equally distressing to the Germans.

America was supposed to be the country that magnanimously defended decency and democracy around the world, not a place that started questionable wars and dragged its feet on pressing environmental issues while the polar ice caps melted.

Bush jarred Germany from its happy Yankee daydream, which is perhaps why so many Germans are such enthusiastic Obama backers – they’re desperate for him to reassure them America is the good place they’ve always believed it to be. Intelligent, charismatic and best yet – apparently interested in what they have to say – Obama pushes all the right buttons for the Germans.

It’s no wonder a recent survey by pollster TNS Forschung showed a massive 76 percent of Germans considered Obama the better candidate for the US presidency. A mere 10 percent picked McCain.

Problems on the horizon

But will the German love affair with Obama last? Already there are problems looming on the horizon.

Obama has said he wants to redeploy US forces from Iraq to Afghanistan. But he also wants NATO allies like Germany to shoulder a bigger burden in the fight against the Taliban and al-Qaida. However, several German politicians are already trying to pre-empt any demands for Germany to increase its troop levels or send its soldiers into dangerous combat missions in the south of the country.

That certainly doesn’t sound much like the “unlimited solidarity” Berlin professed shortly after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Back then, very few in Germany questioned that military intervention in Afghanistan was necessary – even the pacifist Green party backed sending troops as part of a NATO mission. However, only a few years later there was overwhelming opposition in Germany to the US-led invasion of Iraq.

Unfortunately for both German leaders and Obama should he become president, the Bush administration has succeeded in melding the two conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq to the point where most Germans can no longer distinguish between them. The Bush strategy of labelling both part of the war on terror has worked, but with the unintended consequence of sapping German support for the fight in Afghanistan rather than bolster backing for action in Iraq.

Is Obama’s admittedly powerful charisma enough to woo both the German government and public? Can he explain why Berlin should risk having more German soldiers come home from Afghanistan in coffins? Can he distinguish between the “good” war in Afghanistan and the “bad” war in Iraq?

Or will Germany’s Obamania simply reach its highpoint this Thursday afternoon in Berlin?

ECONOMY

‘Turning point’: Is Germany’s ailing economy on the road to recovery?

The German government slightly increased its 2024 growth forecast Wednesday, saying there were signs Europe's beleaguered top economy was at a "turning point" after battling through a period of weakness.

'Turning point': Is Germany's ailing economy on the road to recovery?

Output is expected to expand 0.3 percent this year, the economy ministry said, up from a prediction of 0.2 percent in February.

The slightly rosier picture comes after improvements in key indicators — from factory output to business activity — boosted hopes a recovery may be getting under way.

The German economy shrank slightly last year, hit by soaring inflation, a manufacturing slowdown and weakness in trading partners, and has acted as a major drag on the 20-nation eurozone.

But releasing its latest projections, the economy ministry said in a statement there were growing indications of a “turning point”.

“Signs of an economic upturn have increased significantly, especially in recent weeks,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck said at a press conference.

The ministry also cut its forecast for inflation this year to 2.4 percent, from a previous prediction of 2.8 percent, and sees the figure falling below two percent next year.

READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?

“The fall in inflation will lead to consumer demand — people have more money in their wallets again, and will spend this money,” said Habeck.

“So purchasing power is increasing, real wages are rising and this will contribute to a domestic economic recovery.”

Energy prices — which surged after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had also fallen and supply chain woes had eased, he added.

Several months ago there had been expectations of a strong rebound in 2024, with forecasts of growth above one percent, but these were dialled back at the start of the year as the economy continued to languish.

‘Germany has fallen behind’

But improving signs have fuelled hopes the lumbering economy — while not about to break into a sprint — may at least be getting back on its feet.

On Wednesday a closely-watched survey from the Ifo institute showed business sentiment rising for a third consecutive month in April, and more strongly than expected.

A key purchasing managers’ index survey this week showed that business activity in Germany had picked up.

And last week the central bank, the Bundesbank, forecast the economy would expand slightly in the first quarter, dodging a recession, after earlier predicting a contraction.

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) presents the latest economic forecasts at a press conference in Berlin on Wednesday, April 24th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

Despite the economy’s improving prospects, growth of 0.3 percent is still slower than other developed economies and below past rates, and officials fret it is unlikely to pick up fast in the years ahead.

Habeck has repeatedly stressed solutions are needed for deep-rooted problems facing Germany, from an ageing population to labour shortages and a transition towards greener industries that is moving too slowly.

“Germany has fallen behind other countries in terms of competitiveness,” he said. “We still have a lot to do — we have to roll up our sleeves.”

READ ALSO: Which German companies are planning to cut jobs?

Already facing turbulence from pandemic-related supply chain woes, the German economy’s problems deepened dramatically when Russia invaded Ukraine and slashed supplies of gas, hitting the country’s crucial manufacturers hard.

While the energy shock has faded, continued weakness in trading partners such as China, widespread strikes in recent months and higher eurozone interest rates have all prolonged the pain.

The European Central Bank has signalled it could start cutting borrowing costs in June, which would boost the eurozone.

But Habeck stressed that care was still needed as, despite the expectations of imminent easing, “tight monetary policy has not yet been lifted.”

In addition, disagreements in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party ruling coalition are hindering efforts to reignite growth, critics say.

This week the pro-business FDP party, a coalition partner, faced an angry backlash from Scholz’s SPD when it presented a 12-point plan for an “economic turnaround”, including deep cuts to state benefits.

Christian Lindner, the fiscally hawkish FDP finance minister, welcomed signs of “stabilisation” in the economic forecasts but stressed that projected medium-term growth was “too low to sustainably finance our state”.

“There are no arguments for postponing the economic turnaround,” he added.

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