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Spain’s Euro win ‘bad for Swedish economy’

Fernando Torres' goal in the final of Euro 2008 may be a boon for Spain but economists reckon that a bullet from Ballack would have been of greater benefit to Sweden.

Published: 30 June 2008 18:17 CEST

Around ten percent of Sweden’s exports make their way to Germany, and happy Germans are more likely to spend than disappointed Germans.

“The result in the final wasn’t the best as far as we’re concerned. Germany is our biggest trade partner. It would have been better if a big country like Germany had secured a win and become a bit more upbeat,” SEB economist Tomas Lindström told TT.

Lindström did not believe speculation however that it might have been better for Sweden had Germany not made it to the final at all.

“The final is at least somewhat positive for Germany, but it will pass quickly,” he said.

Rough estimates suggest that the Spanish economy will grow by an extra 0.5 percent as a result of Torres’ deft chip over German keeper Jens Lehmann.

But the effect of a championship victory will never be enough to stave off a recession, leaving Spain facing continued problems with sky high inflation.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year.

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’, Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn.

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment?

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024 about 1 percent below the estimated structural level.

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending?

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”. The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”.

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025.

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023.

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write.

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers.

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.”

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