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ECONOMY

Euro hits record high against the dollar

The euro has surged to a record high against the US dollar, as Europe’s single currency broke through the important psychological barrier of $1.50 late on Tuesday.

Euro hits record high against the dollar
Photo: dpa

The magic barrier has been broken. Only a few weeks after the massive cuts to US interest rates, the euro has surged to new highs in the currency markets. Europe’s single currency hit a record high of $1.5047 late on Tuesday evening. But breaking through the important psychological boundary of $1.50 could be an important turning point according to economists, who believe the euro isn’t likely to soar much higher against the greenback.

Worries about the euro-zone’s economy and possible interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank are likely to weaken the euro in the coming months. Plus the euro has not appreciated against other major currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc in recent months.

“The euro isn’t really such an unbelievably hard currency,“ said economist Christan Melzer from DekaBank in Frankfurt. Last year the euro appreciated against the dollar around ten percent – but measured against a basket of important world currencies the euro appreciated only seven percent over the same period. Since the start of 2008 the euro has remained largely stable against the grouped currencies, appreciating only 0.1 percent due to heavy losses on global stock markets, which made it less attractive to invest in both euros and dollars.

“The cycle is over, the dollar will recover in the second half of the year,” said Claudia Windt, an economist with the Landesbank Hesse-Thuringia. She explained that the difference in interest rates between the United States and the euro zone is likely to decrease in the last two quarters of 2008.

The US dollar has plummeted in recent months as the subprime lending crisis rocked the world’s largest economy. The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in January, causing the euro to appreciate against the greenback as it became more attractive to invest in Europe than America. But the strong euro hurts big exporters like Germany, as the country’s goods become more expensive abroad.

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ECONOMY

How is Denmark’s economy handling inflation and rate rises?

Denmark's economy is now expected to avoid a recession in the coming years, with fewer people losing their jobs than expected, despite high levels of inflation and rising interest rates, The Danish Economic Council has said in a new report.

How is Denmark's economy handling inflation and rate rises?

The council, led by four university economics professors commonly referred to as “the wise men” or vismænd in Denmark, gave a much rosier picture of Denmark’s economy in its spring report, published on Tuesday, than it did in its autumn report last year. 

“We, like many others, are surprised by how employment continues to rise despite inflation and higher interest rates,” the chair or ‘chief wise man’,  Carl-Johan Dalgaard, said in a press release.

“A significant drop in energy prices and a very positive development in exports mean that things have gone better than feared, and as it looks now, the slowdown will therefore be more subdued than we estimated in the autumn.”

In the English summary of its report, the council noted that in the autumn, market expectations were that energy prices would remain at a high level, with “a real concern for energy supply shortages in the winter of 2022/23”.

That the slowdown has been more subdued, it continued was largely due to a significant drop in energy prices compared to the levels seen in late summer 2022, and compared to the market expectations for 2023.  

The council now expects Denmark’s GDP growth to slow to 1 percent in 2023 rather than for the economy to shrink by 0.2 percent, as it predicted in the autumn. 

In 2024, it expects the growth rate to remain the same as in 2003, with another year of 1 percent GDP growth. In its autumn report it expected weaker growth of 0.6 percent in 2024.

What is the outlook for employment? 

In the autumn, the expert group estimated that employment in Denmark would decrease by 100,000 people towards the end of the 2023, with employment in 2024  about 1 percent below the estimated structural level. 

Now, instead, it expects employment will fall by just 50,000 people by 2025.

What does the expert group’s outlook mean for interest rates and government spending? 

Denmark’s finance minister Nikolai Wammen came in for some gentle criticism, with the experts judging that “the 2023 Finance Act, which was adopted in May, should have been tighter”.  The current government’s fiscal policy, it concludes “has not contributed to countering domestic inflationary pressures”. 

The experts expect inflation to stay above 2 percent in 2023 and 2024 and not to fall below 2 percent until 2025. 

If the government decides to follow the council’s advice, the budget in 2024 will have to be at least as tight, if not tighter than that of 2023. 

“Fiscal policy in 2024 should not contribute to increasing demand pressure, rather the opposite,” they write. 

The council also questioned the evidence justifying abolishing the Great Prayer Day holiday, which Denmark’s government has claimed will permanently increase the labour supply by 8,500 full time workers. 

“The council assumes that the abolition of Great Prayer Day will have a short-term positive effect on the labour supply, while there is no evidence of a long-term effect.” 

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