SHARE
COPY LINK

UNION

LO economist ‘no longer understands’ Riksbank

A speech by Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves to Swedish Trade Union Confederation (LO) economists did little to shed light on the bank’s decision making process.

Following the speech, LO’s head economist Dan Andersson remained unsure of the Riksbank’s motives.

“I realize now that I no longer understand how the Riksbank thinks,” he said.

The Riksbank came under fire last week after its surprise decision to raise interest rates.

Criticism was directed not only at the move itself, which many analysts believed was unwarranted due the weakening of the US economy, but also because the Riksbank wasn’t forthcoming in its prognosis prior to announcing the decision.

As a result, the rate hike caught most analysts by surprise, riling the markets and causing short term rates to rise steeply.

But the conversation between LO economists and Ingves on Thursday did little to increase their understanding of the situation.

“I thought I understood how the Riksbank thoguht, but I realize that I no longer do. I can’t figure out what it is that drives Riksbank interest rate decisions,” said Andresson.

The Riksbank justified last week’s move by pointing to higher inflation expectations.

But Andersson doesn’t believe that the heightened expectations constitute a big risk.

The expectations are more a reflection of how higher prices for oil and food might affect inflation in Sweden. But those price rises won’t be affected by the Riksbank’s main interest rate.

“The Riksbank is using circular reasoning here. Inflation expectations are based primarily on what happens globally,” said Andersson.

Ingves said as well after the meeting that higher inflation expectations were an important part of the decision to raise the repo rate.

“If expectations were to rise steeply as they did in the 1970s and 1980s, we would perhaps need to wage another costly battle to bring inflation down once again,” he said.

ECONOMY

Riksbank deputy ‘open to reconsidering raising rates in April’

Martin Flodén, the deputy governor of Sweden's Riksbank, has questioned whether the central bank needs to bring in further rate rises in April, following bank runs on two niche banks in the US and a crisis of confidence at Credit Suisse.

Riksbank deputy 'open to reconsidering raising rates in April'

Uncertainty in the financial market following bank runs in the US and a crisis at Swiss bank Credit Suisse could have changed the playing field, he told TT in an interview. 

“It affects which level the key interest rates need to be in order to have a contractive effect,” he said, referring to the recent days of financial market turbulence. “We can’t just look at key interest rates by themselves. It’s the key interest rate in combination with all of these developments which determines how tight financial policy will be.”

He said it was not yet obvious what decision should be taken. 

“It’s clear that monetary policy needs to stay tight, but what level of interest is that? We need to assess all of the current developments there.” 

‘Could go in different directions’

In theory, there could be such a serious financial crisis, with such a severe effect on lending and banks’ financing costs, that the central bank would be forced to adopt supportive measures, even lowering the key rate.

Flodén doesn’t think Sweden is in that situation, although he thinks there’s a possibility it could happen.

“It’s not something I can see happening right now, at least, although this could go in different directions.” 

He added that he doesn’t see any reason for any “special concern”, toning down the risk that a crisis for two smaller niche banks in the US and at Credit Suisse could affect the Swedish financial system.

“Of course, it could lead to some stress, but there aren’t actually any particular signs in Sweden, which are worrying me,” he said. 

Flodén is one of six members of the Riksbank executive board, led by Riksbank chief Erik Thedéen, responsible for making a decision on whether interest rates will go up again at the end of April.

The Riksbank has indicated that a rate hike of between 0.25 and 0.5 percent from the current 3 percent rate could be necessary.

Flodén described the most recent inflation statistics for February, where inflation unexpectedly rose to 12 percent, as “not good at all”. So-called KPIF inflation, where the effect of mortgage rates is removed, rose from 9.3 percent to 8.7 percent in January. The Riksbank’s goal is 2 percent.

“It’s clear that inflation is still far too high and that monetary policy needs to be focussed on combatting inflation,” he said, adding that inflation statistics for March will be released before the central bank is due to make a decision on whether to raise rates or not in April.

SHOW COMMENTS