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EDITORIAL

Editorial: Predicting the unpredictable for 2006

"You can only predict things after they have happened," said Romanian-French playwright Eugen Ionescu.

Published: 6 January 2006 14:49 CET

The old fellow was no doubt right that prediction is a futile exercise, but then he almost certainly never had to write a column in a Swedish website when the entire Swedish establishment, rather than generating news for hacks to comment on, was on its seemingly never-ending Christmas break.

So, if only to provide Local readers a year from now with a chance to fill the discussion boards with examples of how this column got it wrong, we’ve done a little crystal ball gazing of our own.

The first part of the year will be dominated for most people by two heavyweights battling in what could be one of the most hotly contested votes in recent Swedish history.

The heavyweight veteran contender will compete against the ever-youthful choice of conservative-minded voters for the privilege of being Sweden’s most visible representative on the international stage. Yes, that’s right, it’s back to the future for Melodifestivalen, with Kikki Danielsson taking on fellow chanteuse Carola.

Carola has to be the favourite, bringing back fond memories of her victory in Europe in 1991, and her still well-remembered debut in the contest in 1983. But as her own website admits, while half of Sweden loves her, the other half can’t stand her. So will the anti-Carola votes go to Kikki or to an upstart? The whole of Sweden will be sitting on the edge of its klippan sofas.

And that’s where they’ll stay throughout the summer, as Sweden rampages towards World Cup misery.

With the best Swedish team in a generation, expectations are high and in international football that usually means one thing: disappointment. Everyone agrees that Sweden will probably qualify from their group, and probably behind England. That probably means a meeting with hosts Germany. And that probably means defeat.

The more observant news junkies among readers will be aware that there is an election this year, in September, with the cosy kitchen-table Alliance of Moderates, Liberals, Christian Democrats and the Centre Party currently sailing ahead in the polls.

But are there rockier waters ahead for Reinfeldt and chums? Recent signs have been ominous, particularly when they appeared unable to unite over whether to have a vote of confidence in the government following the hugely critical tsunami report.

On balance, it looks like the four leaders will realise that unity is everything if they are to beat the Social Democrats and get into government. Certainly, if they achieve this, there is everything to play for. But will the smaller parties of the Alliance get nervous about their individual poll scores, and try scoring points off the others? If they do, it could be another four years of Persson.

The prime minister himself is set to swing the formidable Social Democratic apparatus into action, able to call not only on his party but all its client organisations in the trade union movement, desperate to keep the privileged status they enjoy in Sweden under Social Democratic governments.

Persson can also call into play the relatively good state of the Swedish economy, something that has almost gone unnoticed in the political debate. Expect to see more talk of Sweden’s relatively decent growth rate compared to many of its European neighbours and its low unemployment, and yet more talk of how the Moderates are trying to victimise the poor and unemployed in Sweden.

Reinfeldt will continue to drive home the argument that many more Swedes are unemployed than the official figures suggest, and that it needs to be made cheaper to employ people. Expect too more arguments about education, with the egalitarian Social Democrats resisting Alliance attempts to restore more traditional values into education, with more grading and attempts to make schools more selective.

One issue that could damage the Social Democrats is their continued dependence on the Left Party. So far, Persson has managed to avoid sustaining damage from his association with the discredited self-confessed Communist Lars Ohly, but how much longer before he has to answer some uncomfortable questions?

As the election approaches, the focus is bound to shift onto how he will continue to govern with the Left Party, particularly as Ohly is likely to demand a more prominent role in government. If Persson mishandles this, could it push centrist Social Democrats towards the Alliance?

An unknown quantity is the Stockholm congestion charge trial. With the trial due to end in the summer, the future of charging will be decided in a referendum. With 80 percent of Stockholmers currently against it, there is a real risk that the government and its Social Democratic colleagues on Stockholm council will lose, meaning billions of kronor spent on equipment will have been wasted.

Here, though, I’m going to stick my neck out and say that Stockholmers will vote in favour of the charge. Not a rebellious bunch, they will swallow the arguments of political leaders and reluctantly allow charging to continue, thus averting another crisis for Social Democracy.

One more relationship set to come under renewed scrutiny will be Crown Princess Victoria’s romance with gym owner Daniel Westling. The will-they, won’t-they saga of their relationship has to be resolved some time soon.

A fierce guardian of her privacy, the princess is certain to deny any plans until the official announcement it made. But Victoria is 29 this year, and has been with 32-year old Westling for some years now. Maybe this will be the year, but if it is the couple will have to overcome concerns that small-town boy Daniel is not prince material.

So the safe money is on a Carola victory, defeat for Sweden in the second round of the World Cup at the feet of Germany and election victory for the Moderates – with perhaps a cheeky outside bet on a royal wedding.

Of course, Ionescu was right. The only certainty is that the news in 2006, just as in 2005 and every year before, will be dominated by the unpredictable.

But whatever this year holds in store, all of us at The Local wish you a very happy 2006!

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MEDIA

Editorial: Should suspects keep their privacy?

Foreigners reading Swedish newspapers – including The Local – are often surprised by the way crime is reported here. In particular, the Swedish convention of almost never naming suspects is something that we, as British and American journalists based in Sweden, constantly grapple with.

Published: 22 June 2006 19:36 CEST

The names are usually taken out of the reporting by journalists, not by police or the courts. When a case comes to court, we get documents from the court detailing the full names and addresses of the accused, and the names of the victims.

This leads to tortuous constructions, such as “the 33-year old man,” being repeated throughout an article (something that gets worse when a suspect celebrates a birthday between committing the alleged crime and coming to trial – “the 33-year old, who was 32 when he committed the crime”).

The following paragraphs from the press code are particularly important in explaining why journalists tend to refrain from publishing names of suspects:

“Consider carefully the consequences of publishing a name if that can harm people. Refrain from such a publication unless it is obviously in the public interest to publish the name.”

“If a name is not given avoid publishing photos or information on job, age, title nationality, gender or something else that would make identification possible.”

At the moment we have chosen to follow Swedish practice of not publishing this information, although we tend to push this as far in favour of naming the suspects as possible. Therefore, when large parts of the Swedish press were naming ‘Haga Man’, Niklas Lindgren (after he admitted to the attacks), we also started to name him. TT and SVT still aren’t naming him, but this in our view is excessively cautious.

There are plenty of good arguments in favour of naming suspects and convicted prisoners: the basic principle that journalists should provide as much relevant information as possible in an impartial manner being the most significant of these. American journalists visiting Sweden are often particularly insistent that this point should be considered before all others.

A point often used in Britain to justify identifying suspects is that naming someone arrested and charged with a crime removes suspicion from anyone who might have been questioned earlier in the investigation. People’s identities are usually only kept secret when to identify them would risk identifying the victim – in incest or rape cases, for instance.

Another factor to take into consideration is that justice should be conducted as far as possible in the public arena. People are charged and prosecuted in the name of the Swedish people – that justice is seen to be done is important.

On a practical level, people have made the point that naming a suspect on the loose can help police track him down. There is also the advantage that using names and pictures can jog the memories of witnesses.

All this can arguably be done without sensationalizing a case, although the tabloids will inevitably be tempted to do so.

Indeed, in some cases not naming people involved in a case can lead to greater sensationalism. Take the example of the Knutby murders: did referring to Åsa Waldau as ‘the Bride of Christ’, to Helge Fossmo as ‘the Pastor’ and to Sara Svensson as ‘the Nanny’ actually turn a case about the deaths of two women into a soap opera?

In fact, are we looking at the wrong issue? Is it perhaps more worrying that crimes are reported here in every sensational detail (names apart) before they have even reached court. Does this detract from the respect that should be accorded to the judicial process.

The argument against naming the people charged is simple: they are innocent until proven guilty, and mud sticks. Is it in the interests of justice that someone perceived in the public eye to be guilty but found not guilty by the courts should have to live out their lives in fear of reprisals?

A powerful argument, and one that cannot be refuted, except to say that the combined weight of the arguments in favour of naming might balance this out.

Ultimately, though, there is an intrinsic value for newspapers in following the press code, even if this code might sometimes be found wanting. But it might be healthy for the Swedish media to reappraise whether the current rules are really in the public interest.

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