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ELECTIONS

French election breakdown: Military power-struggle, French preference and beers

From the question of who controls the French armed forces to the brutal battle of the polls, via the candidates' beer-drinking skills - here's all the latest from the campaign trail as we head into the first round of voting in France's snap parliamentary elections.

Published: 28 June 2024 07:48 CEST
French election breakdown: Military power-struggle, French preference and beers
French President Emmanuel Macron reviews troops on a visit to Jordan. Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP

During the election period we will be publishing a bi-weekly ‘election breakdown’ to help you keep up with the latest developments. You can receive these as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to ‘breaking news alerts’.

We’re now 19 days on from Emmanuel Macron’s surprise election announcement, with the first round of voting on Sunday.

Military force

I’m not saying that this election is terrifying, but the current debate in France is whether, as president, Macron is truly the head of the armed forces or only “nominally”.

France, let’s remember, is a nuclear power and at the moment it can’t seem to agree who actually controls its army . . .

The military question – especially in the context of France’s strong support for Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion – is only one reason why the rest of the world is paying close attention to these elections. Over in Brussels there is something approaching panic at the though of an anti-EU party in control of one of the ‘joint engines’ of the European Union, while financial markets are already seriously spooked about two of the party manifestos.

Polls

The polls have been making grim reading for Macron’s party ever since he called this election, but as the week has gone on they have consistently provided bad news for everybody apart from Marine Le Pen and her far-right Rassemblement National party.

RN seems to be extending its lead and could be getting within striking distance of an absolute majority in parliament. Previous polls had the party as winning the biggest vote share, but not getting enough seats for a majority.

This makes a huge difference as an RN with a majority would be much more likely to be able to implement its flagship policies – including excluding dual nationals from certain jobs and imposing ‘French preference’ on job, housing and social benefits. This essentially means state-imposed discrimination against anyone who is not French from birth.

What is ‘French preference’ and how would it hurt foreigners in France?

Dry bottom

You might think that the ability to ‘cul sec‘ (down in one) a pint of beer has no bearing on a politician’s ability or suitability for the role. You might think that this kind of macho bullshit has no place on the campaign trail.

And you might be right – but if we were picking politicians on their drinking ability, ex president and current parliamentary candidate in Corrèze François Hollande would make a strong case.

What happens over the next week?

Polling day for round one is Sunday, June 30th with polling stations open from 8am to 8pm in most areas.

At 8pm on Sunday the preliminary results are released – these are created by taking sample votes counts from carefully selected polling stations, and are usually very accurate. These results tell us who will be standing in the second round in each constituency (or if any candidates have achieved an outright win, meaning that there will be no second round in their constituency).

READ ALSO How does France’s two-round voting system work?

On Wednesday, July 3rd, the official list of candidates for the second round in each constituency is published, and by this date posters for eliminated candidates should also be removed from the billboards.

Sunday, July 7th, is polling day for round two and it follows the same format as round one – preliminary results are released at 8pm, this time telling us the winner in each constituency.

Then the calculations begin to see if any party or group has scored the magic number of seats – 289 – required for an absolute majority in the Assembleé nationale.

If any party or group has an absolute majority, they have the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister. If there’s no majority then it’s likely that an extended period of negotiations to try and form a coalition will begin – although this is somewhat uncharted territory . . .

You can follow all the latest election news HERE or sign up to receive these election breakdowns as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to ‘breaking news alerts’.

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ELECTIONS

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

With the far-right in the lead after the first round of the snap French elections the big question now is whether they can win a majority in parliament - which gives them the right to nominate the prime minister.

Published: 30 June 2024 22:38 CEST
Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

Preliminary results for round one of voting on June 30th show the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party in the lead with 34.5 percent of the vote, followed by the left alliance Nouveau Front Populaire on 28.1 percent and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group on 20.8 percent.

Follow the latest on the results HERE.

We now move on to round two – which will give the final results in each of France’s 577 constituencies.

The big question is whether any party or group can reach the magic number of 289 seats, which would give them a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament).

A party or group that gets 289 seats not only gets to exercise control over votes on legislation, but can also nominate a member of the party to be prime minister.

If a party other than the president’s party has a majority then the prime minister and the president are forced to work together in an easy alliance known as a cohabitiation.

So will the far-right RN win enough seats to get a majority?

First things first – this is all guesswork, we won’t know for certain whether Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party will have enough seats for a majority until the results of the second round are in on the evening of Sunday, July 7th.

However the pollsters have been working their magic trying to predict the total seat share from the first round vote and it seems they RN are set to win a huge number of seats. 

Various different polling agencies have different and very wide estimates, but all are saying that the final result for the RN could be close to that key number of 289.

A projection for the Elabe institute for BFMTV, RMC and La Tribune Dimanche put RN and its allies on between 255 and 295 seats.

Early projections from Ipsos suggest that RN and its allies could win between 230 and 280 seats in parliament.

It’s worth noting that given the unpredictability around the second round of voting (see below) France’s official polling watchdog does not endorse the seat projections by the polling companies.

Polls in the run up to the first round suggested the RN would not gain an absolute majority in parliament but wouldn’t be far off.

Second round votes

A big factor in the second round will be the ‘triangulaires’ or areas where the second round has three candidates.

In areas where this happens, it’s possible that some parties will agree to withdraw candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote – negotiations are ongoing in this area but it’s most likely to happen with leftist or centrist candidates.

The intention is to present a common front against the far-right – so if this happens in a significant number of areas it could affect the far-right’s overall seat numbers.

Follow the latest on those negotiations HERE.

Prime minister

If the far-right does gain an overall majority it has the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister and that person will be 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.

He has already said that he will only accept the PM role if his party wins an overall majority.

Although Macron will remain the president, having a parliamentary majority and a prime minister means the far-right will be in a much stronger position to implement some of their flagship policies including a drastic reduction in immigration and the imposing of ‘French preference’ to give precedence to French citizens in employment and housing.

READ ALSO What would a far-right prime minister mean for foreigners in France?

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