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ELECTIONS

Former French president Hollande says Macron ascendency ‘is over’

French President Emmanuel Macron's ascendancy is "over", former head of state Francois Hollande told AFP Saturday, after his former protege called a snap election likely to hand massive gains to the far right.

Former French president, member of French left-wing Socialist Party (PS) and candidate for left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) in the Correze department Francois Hollande (R) shakes hands with a butcher as he meets locals during a campaign visit, ahead of the upcoming elections, in Ussel, central France
Former French president, member of French left-wing Socialist Party (PS) and candidate for left-wing coalition Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) in the Correze department Francois Hollande (R) shakes hands with a butcher as he meets locals during a campaign visit, ahead of the upcoming elections, in Ussel, central France on June 22, 2024. (Photo by Pascal LACHENAUD / AFP)

“I have no scores to settle at all. That’s all in the past,” Hollande said on the campaign trail in his native Correze department in central France, where he is standing to be an MP.

Suffering at the time from abysmal poll ratings, Socialist Hollande did not himself stand for a second term at the 2017 election.

Running as a pro-business centrist, his former economy minister Macron pulled off a surprise win that shattered traditional governing parties on the left and the right.

Now just two years into the younger man’s second term, “Macronism is over, if indeed it ever existed. But it’s over, I say it with no special hostility,” Hollande said.

“I don’t mean that his presidential term is coming to an end, that’s something different. But what he may have represented for a time is over,” he added.

Re-elected in 2022 for a second five-year term, Macron lost his absolute majority in parliament in legislative polls the same year.

His party has limped on in minority government, passing hard-fought and controversial reforms including raising the pension age and toughening immigration law.

But a heavy defeat at June 9’s European Parliament election prompted Macron to dissolve parliament in hopes of breaking the deadlock.

READ ALSO: French left vows new taxes as snap election draws near

A new chamber will be elected on June 30 and July 7 with the far-right National Rally (RN) looking set to win the most seats.

‘Heavy cost’

France’s two-round electoral system makes predicting outcomes tricky, but it is highly unlikely that Macron’s gamble will pay off by winning a new majority.

Instead, he could find himself presiding over a government run by an ideological opponent.

Macron’s rule has “had a heavy political cost,” Hollande said.

“The parties were heavily damaged and public morale was too. The far right has never been so strong.”

Hollande’s Socialist party has formed an electoral alliance with other left parties including Greens, Communists and hard-left France Unbowed (LFI).

Their New Popular Front (NFP) is currently running second to the RN in the polls, both well ahead of Macron’s Renaissance outfit.

“It’s time for a political realignment,” Hollande said.

READ ALSO: OPINION: France has taken leave of its senses, and it’s no laughing matter

“I didn’t plan to stand for any election in my position, something very serious had to happen” in the shape of the RN’s more than 31 percent in the European election, he added.

Some Socialist voters have struggled with the idea of backing an alliance with LFI and its fiery leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, with some party figures accused of anti-Semitism and a history of Eurosceptic statements.

“I’m in the framework of an alliance because it has to be done, but there’s no kind of confusion” between his positions and Melenchon’s, Hollande said.

If elected, “I’ll be an MP who will call for responsibility whatever happens… vigilant and committed to finding solutions,” he added.

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FRENCH ELECTIONS

Who are France’s ‘ni-ni’ people?

They might sound like something out of a Monthy Python film, but the 'ni-ni's could end up determining the course of the French election.

Who are France's 'ni-ni' people?

In among the fevered speculation about France’s snap legislative elections – in which the far-right Rassemblement National is currently leading the polls – you may have heard talk of les ni-nis.

In French the word ni means neither or nor, and it is used regularly in everyday conversation – Je n’aime ni la bière ni le vin (I like neither beer, nor wine).

In a political context, it means rejection of both of the main or poll-leading parties, and it is important because of France’s two-round voting system.

Snap elections

In the current snap parliamentary elections – with polling days on June 30th and July 7th – the two groups leading the polls are Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National party and the Nouveau Front Populaire, an alliance of the four main parties of the left (the hard-left La France Insoumise, the centre-left Parti Socialiste, the Greens and the Communists).

Although the left alliance consists of four parties, it is dominated by the biggest – La France Insoumise. The party’s hard-line economic positions and recent accusations of anti-Semitism have made them unpalatable to some voters, especially those in the centre or centre-left.

All of which means, that a significant chunk of voters are saying “Ni RN, ni NFP” – neither Rassemblement National, nor Nouveau Front Populaire.

Among those seem to be at least some in Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group, the president himself describes both groups as ‘les extremes‘.

Two rounds

It’s pretty common in elections around the world to find plenty of voters who don’t like either of the main parties on offer.

What makes ‘les ni-nis‘ more significant in France is the two-round voting system – voters head to the polls once and choose from any of the array of candidates standing in their seat. The highest scorers from round one then go through to a second round, and voters go back to the polls a week later and vote on the second-round candidates.

READ ALSO How does France’s two-round voting system work?

Current polling suggests that in a significant number of constituencies, the second round will come down to a run-off between candidates from Rassemblement National and the Nouveau Front Populaire.

At which point les ni-nis will have to decide whether they truly can’t vote for either of the candidates.

They have the choice of either abstaining, casting a vote blanc (blank ballot paper) or picking the candidate they dislike the least.

What they decide could well end up determining France’s next government.

You can follow all the latest election news HERE or sign up to receive by email our bi-weekly election breakdown

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