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ELECTIONS

Macron says snap France vote was ‘most responsible solution’

French President Emmanuel Macron has defended his decision to hold snap legislative elections where a predicted far-right victory could hobble his remaining term, calling it the “most responsible solution”.

French President Emmanuel Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / POOL / AFP)

His far-right rival and potential future prime minister Jordan Bardella urged voters to give his alliance a clear majority and said he would ‘refuse’ to become head of government without one.

Macron’s bloc is trailing the far right and a new left-wing alliance in the polls and faces an uphill struggle to narrow the gap less than two weeks before the first round.

Earlier this month, he stunned the nation by calling the polls for June 30th and July 7th after the far-right National Rally (RN) trounced his centrist alliance in EU elections.

Listen to the team from The Local discussing all the election latest on the Talking France podcast. Download here or listen on the link below

Macron lost his absolute parliamentary majority in 2022 and his second term, which runs to 2027, risks being hampered with the opposition controlling the government and parliament.

But the president hit back on Tuesday, saying dissolving the National Assembly was, “the heaviest, the most serious, but the most responsible” solution after the EU election debacle.

“Without the dissolution, it would have been chaos,” he said during a visit to the western Brittany region, adding that a ‘silent majority’ of voters were against the ‘disorder’ of political extremes.

The gamble has triggered a major realignment of French politics, with new alliances including hardliners forming on the left and right, and bewildered some of his allies.

According to an IFOP poll for the LCI television channel, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) would take 33 percent of the vote on June 30, the New Popular Front left-wing alliance 28 percent and Macron’s ruling centrists 18 percent.

But such an outcome would mean the RN would be unlikely to win the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly.

RN leader Bardella, who at 28 could be France’s youngest head of government, told broadcasters CNews and Europe 1 he needed an absolute majority to govern unhampered.

“I don’t want to be the president’s assistant,” he said.

Speaking to France 2 television later, Bardella added that he would ‘refuse to be appointed’ prime minister if he had no absolute majority.

Eyes are also already turning to presidential polls in 2027, when Macron must stand down and RN figurehead Marine Le Pen scents her best chance for power.

The prospect of the far right gaining power for the first time in France has set alarm bells ringing across the country, with football stars representing Les Bleus at Euro 2024 in Germany also weighing in.

Bardella said he admired the players, including the iconic Kylian Mbappé, but indicated they should stay out of politics.

“You need to respect everyone’s vote,” he said. “I am not sure that in this very difficult period… that this is appreciated by people.”

“And when you have the luck to have a huge salary, be a multimillionaire, the chance to travel in a private jet, I am a little annoyed to see these sports figures giving lessons to people who… struggle to make ends meet.”

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, 35, the youngest person to lead the country’s government, urged voters to choose his party’s candidates from the first round as the only ‘credible’ alternative to keep the far right and hard left out of power.

He said the far right and hard left had programmes that would lead France ‘straight to bankruptcy’ if they won.

But in an interview with Le Monde newspaper, the former head of Macron’s ruling party faction in parliament said calling snap polls was an ‘insane decision that makes no sense’.

Macron, “took the unnecessary and dangerous risk that the latent political crisis that has been damaging our country for years will become a full-blown crisis,” said Gilles Le Gendre.

Attal told Franceinfo that there were French who were ‘angry’ or ‘unhappy with the dissolution’ of parliament, but emphasised that Macron had been ‘elected until 2027’.

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FRENCH ELECTIONS

Coalition, resignation or shared rule? The possible outcomes of France’s snap elections

The latest polling in France's parliamentary elections shows no party winning an overall majority - so what happens then? Here's a look at the most likely scenarios.

Coalition, resignation or shared rule? The possible outcomes of France's snap elections

French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision to call snap parliamentary elections has plunged the country into severe political uncertainty.

Polls project that none of the three main political camps – the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), the leftist Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) or Macron’s centrists – will win enough seats to get an absolute majority in parliament.

One thing seems certain – it’s likely to be very messy indeed. But what are the most likely outcomes if parliament is truly deadlocked?

Listen to the team from The Local discussing the election latest in the Talking France podcast. Listen here or on the link below

Cohabitation

The far-right Rassemblement National of three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and current party leader Jordan Bardella are tipped to be the party with most seats after the second round on July 7th.

If the RN and its allies did secure a majority in the Assemblée Nationale – and current polling suggests this is doubtful – Macron would find himself in a “cohabitation“, in which the president and government are from opposing parties.

Post-war France has experienced three such forced marriages. All were between the left and the centre-right with the last from 1997-2002 between President Jacques Chirac and Socialist premier Lionel Jospin.

Cohabitation: What happens in France’s political ‘forced marriages’?

A cohabition between the Macron and his far-right arch-enemies would likely be a much unhappier affair.

While the far-right would be able to implement part of its domestic programme, on, for example, curtailing immigration, only the president can call a referendum or trigger a vote on constitutional changes.

The president, who usually sets foreign and defence policy, could also find his hands tied if the RN appointed nationalist defence and foreign ministers opposed to his worldview.

Coalition

France has spurned coalitions since the post-war 4th Republic (1946-1958) when the country went through 22 governments in 12 years.

Since losing his parliamentary majority in 2022, Macron has sought to cobble together alliances in parliament on a vote-by-vote basis or to force through legislation without a vote rather than form a pact with another party.

The RN or the left could try do the same if they fall short of a majority but a minority government of the far-right or left would likely fail to pass a vote of no confidence.

Aware of the risks, RN leader Bardella has said he will refuse to become prime minister unless he wins an outright majority.

Macron’s camp hopes that in the event of a hung parliament it could form a coalition with moderates of the left and right.

As part of its outreach to possible allies, Macron’s party has not entered candidates in 67 constituencies where centre-right or centre-left candidates are running.

But Macron has limited his options by putting the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI) — the dominant force in the NFP — on a par with the far-right in what he calls the country’s “extremes”. He accuses LFI of anti-Semitism, which it rejects.

Caretaker government

Another option would be for Macron to appoint a technocratic non-partisan government which all parties could get behind.

Camille Bedock, a political scientist at the Emile Durckheim centre in Bordeaux, cites the example of Italy, where respected former European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi formed a national unity government in 2021 when Italy was in turmoil. It lasted a year-and-a-half.

Bedock said Macron could also decide to leave the current government headed by his party’s Gabriel Attal in place in a caretaker capacity for a year. He could then call new elections.

This would have the benefit of ensuring continuity through the Olympic Games (July 26th – August 11th) when the country will be under intense global scrutiny.

Whether the far-right or left would support such a move, which would effectively buy Macron time to try turn around his presidency, is highly uncertain.

Macron resigns

The most dramatic scenario would see Macron resign if faced with the prospect of being neutered by the far right or the hard left.

Le Pen, who is expected to try succeed Macron in 2027 presidential polls, has warned that he “will have no choice but to resign” in the event of a “political crisis”.

READ ALSO Will Macron resign in the event of an election disaster?

Macron has vowed to remain on office until the end of his second term in 2027, whatever the outcome.

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